Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Carolina Panthers beat the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers six times in a row from 2013-15, but last year Tampa Bay swept the NFL season series from Carolina, winning two close games. The oddsmakers expect another close one when the Bucs play the Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: The Buccaneers opened as two-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.9-22.2 Buccaneers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers started 4-1 this season, with wins at New England and at Detroit. But they're now trying to stop a two-game losing streak after falling at Chicago last week 17-3.

Carolina fell down to the Bears 7-0 on a 75-yard fumble return for a score in the first quarter, then gave up a 76-yard pick-six in the second quarter. The Panthers outplayed Chicago from there but never reached the end zone, finishing with a frustrating defeat.

On the afternoon, Carolina outgained the Bears 293-153, held a 20-5 advantage in first downs and won time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin. And the Panthers defense didn't allow a touchdown. But those two defensive scores, both coming with Carolina driving inside Chicago territory, plus a terribly timed penalty and a 4th-down failure, spelled doom.

Through seven games the Carolina offense ranks just 19th in the league, but the defense ranks third overall and fourth against the run, allowing just 81 yards per game on the ground. Also, the Panthers are 3-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers started 2-1 this season but are now trying to halt a three-game skid following a 30-27 defeat at Buffalo last week.

Tampa Bay trailed the Bills 17-6 early in the third quarter but rallied to take a 27-20 lead. However, they dropped the last 10 points of the game—the final three on a Buffalo field goal with 14 seconds left—to lose another close one.

On the day, Tampa Bay outgained the Bills 447-434 and held a 33-27 edge in time of possession. Worryingly, though, the first of three Bucs turnovers cost them a shot at an early field goal and the last one led directly to Buffalo's game-winning kick. Tampa Bay has actually outgained three of its last four opponents.

Smart pick

The Bucs own the better offense, but the Panthers field the better defense. In matchups like this, the better defense is usually the better bet. While Tampa swept this rivalry last year, Carolina outgained the Bucs both games. The smart money here picks the Panthers.

NFL betting trends

The Panthers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Buccaneers.

The total has gone under in five of the Panthers' last seven games against the Buccaneers.

The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.