Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

With seven wins over the last eight meetings, including a 24-21 decision back in Week 1 of this season, the Denver Broncos have upped their lead in the all-time series with the Los Angeles Chargers to 64-50.

Denver hopes to continue its recent dominance in this rivalry when it heads to Los Angeles to play the Chargers on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 21.1-20.1 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are looking to bounce back this week after losing at home last week to the Giants 23-10. Denver spotted New York the game's first 10 points, and suffered a big blow when quarterback Trevor Siemian threw a pick-six just before halftime. The Broncos later got stuffed on a 4th-and-goal from the Giants 1-yard line, and that was about it right there.

On the day, Denver actually outgained New York 412-266 and made 20 first downs, compared to 12 for the Giants. But the Broncos also turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals.

Two weeks ago, Denver defeated Oakland 16-10, covering a four-point spread.

Through five games, the Broncos rank a respectable 12th in total offense and ninth in rushing, averaging 124 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Denver defense ranks first overall and second against the run, allowing just 70 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Since starting this season 0-4, which includes three losses by a total of seven points, the Chargers have won two straight, including a 17-16 decision at Oakland last week. Los Angeles trailed the Raiders early 7-0 and 16-14 late but drove 78 yards in the final four minutes and won it on a Nick Novak field goal at the buzzer.

The Chargers outgained Oakland 343-274 and held a 32-28 advantage in time of possession. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense came up with a key stop on a 4th-and-2 at its own 41-yard line early in the fourth quarter, leading directly to a Chargers touchdown.

Two weeks ago, Los Angeles beat the Giants in New Jersey 27-22.

The Chargers have now outgained four of their six opponents this season. But for a couple of missed kicks earlier this year, Los Angeles might be 3-3, or even 4-2, instead of 2-4.

Smart pick

Denver is outrushing opponents this season by a per-game margin of 124-70; Los Angeles is getting outrushed by a margin of 153-79. The smart money here bets the Broncos.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in three of the Broncos' last four games against the Chargers.

The Broncos are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road against the Chargers.

The Broncos are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games against their division on the road.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.