Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) will put their unbeaten record on the line with revenge on their mind against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) on Sunday as solid home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Chiefs lost to the Steelers twice last season, including a home playoff game 18-16 in the divisional round as 2.5-point chalk.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.6-16.2 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game.)

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Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Two words: Le'Veon Bell. The Pittsburgh running back dominated Kansas City's defense on two occasions a year ago, rushing for 144 yards in his 2016 debut that led to a 43-14 home victory and then 170 in the aforementioned playoff matchup.

That said, Bell has put together only one 100-yard effort in 2017, totaling 144 on the road against the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago. Following a 30-9 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday, he was vocal about wanting to run the ball more. If head coach Mike Tomlin and his staff listen, that may be bad news for the Chiefs.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is a much more confident team than last season, which is one of the reasons the team is still undefeated. The Chiefs are getting outstanding quarterback play from Alex Smith, who is doing things that the Steelers wish Ben Roethlisberger could at this point.

Speaking of Roethlisberger, he is coming off a five-interception performance versus the Jaguars and looks like he should have retired in the offseason. Unless the old Big Ben suddenly re-appears, Kansas City's defense will eat him up.

Smart pick

The Chiefs have answered critics in their last few games even if the wins have not been pretty. They are good in all three facets of football—offense, defense and special teams—and have also been a great home team at Arrowhead Stadium.

If this game was being played at Heinz Field, it would be much easier to make a case for Pittsburgh in this spot. But the Steelers are 1-4 against the spread at online betting sites in their last five late afternoon games, so take KC to extend that trend.

NFL betting trends

The Steelers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in five of the Steelers' last six games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in 10 of the Chiefs' last 14 games at home.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.