Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (3-1) return from their bye week to host the Miami Dolphins (2-2) on Sunday as double-digit home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Falcons had suffered their first loss of the season to another AFC East team prior to their bye, falling to the Buffalo Bills 23-17 as eight-point home chalk.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.9-10.4 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Much like Buffalo, Miami is another team from the AFC East that Atlanta is not familiar with. While the Falcons did have their bye week to watch the Dolphins, there is not too much to study from an offensive perspective considering their opponent is averaging a little more than 10 points per game.

Miami's defense remains solid, though, and has kept the team competitive regardless of the shortcomings on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins have gone an impressive 6-2 against the spread in their last eight October road games, so that is positive.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings with Miami, with the home team also going 6-1 straight up in the last seven. Combine those two trends with the fact that the Falcons have won nine of their previous 10 as home favorites (7-3 ATS), and they appear to be justified as double-digit chalk here.

The bye should have helped the team get healthier as well, especially wide receiver Julio Jones, who suffered a hip injury versus the Bills and did not play in the second half of that game. With or without Jones back in the lineup, Atlanta has the superior offense and will use that as an advantage.

Smart pick

The Falcons should win this game without question, but covering the spread as such big favorites is another story. They are 13-1 SU in their last 14 as double-digit chalk but only 5-8-1 ATS, backing up that point.

Atlanta's offense will likely need to score at least four touchdowns against Miami's defense, and that seems doable. But what about the Dolphins offensively? That is a bigger question mark, but somehow Miami will cover at online sports betting sites.

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Falcons.

The total has gone under in six of the Dolphins' last eight games against the Falcons.

The Falcons are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.