NFL Week 6 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

An odd lineup of games is on tap for Week 6.

On one end, we have a couple games that could act as potential playoff previews, most notably in Carolina, Kansas City and Minnesota. In fact, six matchups feature teams with .500 records or better squaring off.

On the other end, some potential blowouts are on the horizon. Per OddsShark, five games feature point spreads of 9.5 or higher.

It should be an interesting slate of matchups. Until then, here's a look at some predictions for this week, with a focus on the over/under totals.

A note before beginning: As of Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET, no line is set on the games between the Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, as the statuses of Oakland quarterback Derek Carr and Tennessee signal-caller Marcus Mariota are not yet known.

Therefore, no over/under picks have been made for on those contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45)

The game of the week will take place on Thursday Night Football between two 4-1 teams in first place.

The two keys are as follows: Which team will be able to better establish the run, and can the opposing pass rushes get to elusive quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Cam Newton?

The guess here is that Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has a breakout game and that Newton does just enough to give his Carolina a close win. 

Pick: Carolina 27, Philadelphia 20 (over)

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 39.5)

Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky may have a bright future ahead of him, but a road date with a Ravens team that allows the second-lowest quarterback rating in the NFL isn't a recipe for offensive success.

Baltimore's offense has sputtered most of the season but showed a few signs of life last Sunday with some tough running and a few deep passes. It should be able to take care of business in a low-scoring game.

Pick: Baltimore 23, Chicago 13 (under)

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10, 46.5)

The Houston Texans offense is multi-dimensional and has the ability to make big plays through the run and pass.

The former might be a problem against a Cleveland Browns team that is second in the NFL in run defense, but the latter shouldn't prove difficult thanks to the legs and arm of Deshaun Watson, who has lit up the league in the last three weeks.

Pick: Houston 30, Cleveland 13 (under)

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 50)

We might see a surprising result at Mercedes-Benz Dome, as the home of high-scoring football could host a run-of-the-mill game Sunday.

The Lions are top 10 in pass defense and run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and the offense has been stuck in neutral most of the season (21st). New Orleans should still be able to score, but Detroit is not going to let this get out of hand.

Pick: New Orleans 24, Detroit 20 (under)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 46.5)

This could be a fantastic aerial showing all game, as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings rank 18th and 20th, respectively, in yards allowed per pass attempt. On the flip side, the Packers passing attack is one of the best in football, while Minnesota's is dangerous behind wideouts Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.

It's hard to bet against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, though, so the slight edge goes to the road team.

Pick: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 28 (over)

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5, 47)

The Miami Dolphins scored just 10 points (six were off a fumble returned for a touchdown) against a Tennessee Titans team that had just lost 57-16 to the Houston Texans the previous week. They have serious issues on offense, and they may not be solved this year.

Atlanta has one of the best offenses in the game and should take care of business at home.

Pick: Atlanta 27, Miami 13 (under)

New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5) at New York Jets

Per Pro Football Focus, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady ranks No. 1 at his position in the league. He'll face a tough Jets defense that has only been responsible for 33 points in their last three games, but the Pats are a class above the Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns on offense.

New England's pass game will be the difference in a comfortable win.

Pick: New England 31, Jets 17 (under)

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-10, 46.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are about to play their third straight road game and fourth in five weeks. They've played in Arizona, Indianapolis and will now fly cross-country to Washington.

Remarkably, the 0-5 49ers have stuck in every game they've played in this year outside a Week 1 23-3 loss to Carolina, but at some point, the rigorous schedule has to take a toll. The guess here is that it does this week.

Pick: Washington 34, San Francisco 10 (under)

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)

This could be an old-school type of game as both teams will look to establish the run behind No. 1 rushers Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette.

Jacksonville's run defense is worst in the league this year, but its pass defense is one of the best in football and consistently makes plays. A late turnover will seal a low-scoring victory for the Jags.

Pick: Jacksonville 20, Los Angeles 19 (under)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2, 44.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are a 2-3 team that could easily be 0-5, as they won two overtime games against squads who are a combined 2-8.

Arizona's season is probably headed for a tailspin, as it has issues running the ball, protecting quarterback Carson Palmer and defending the pass in any direction away from cornerback Patrick Peterson (among other things).

Tampa Bay is the better team and should be the victor.

Pick: Tampa Bay 24, Arizona 17 (under)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 45.5)

How are the Pittsburgh Steelers going to stop the Kansas City Chiefs and the best running back in football, Kareem Hunt?

The Steelers have allowed the second-most yards per carry in the NFL this year and have been thrashed by the Chicago Bears' Jordan Howard and the Jacksonville Jaguars' Leonard Fournette.

Kansas City should be able to control the clock on the ground, take an early lead and keep it.

Pick: Kansas City 27, Pittsburgh 17 (under)

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

The New York Giants just lost their top three wide receivers to injury (two for the season), and now they face the team with the best run defense in football—one that held the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott to just eight yards.

This won't end well for the Giants, who will struggle to score double digits.

Pick: Denver 27, New York 10 (under)

Writer's Note: Predictions may change throughout the week due to a variety of factors, such as injuries, coaching decisions or further statistical or game-tape evaluations.