New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

In a battle for first place in the AFC East, the surprising New York Jets (3-2) will host the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (3-2) on Sunday as big home underdogs at the sportsbooks.

The Jets have won three in a row following an expected 0-2 start and are in a three-way tie atop the division with the Patriots and Buffalo Bills, who are on their bye in Week 6.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.7-24.5 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England will finally be playing a familiar divisional opponent, which should be welcomed after facing three NFC South foes in the past four games.

The Patriots have earned just one easy victory in 2017, and that came in Week 2 when they routed the New Orleans Saints 36-20 on the road.

The Patriots have owned New York the past six years, winning 10 of the previous 12 meetings, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

While New England has gone 10-2 straight up in the last 12 games between the teams, the spread record during that stretch tells a much different story. The Jets are actually 7-4-1 against the spread, covering six of the past eight in the series.

This year, they have relied on their defense to win close games, as each of their last two were decided by just three points.

New York quarterback Josh McCown is no Tom Brady obviously, but he has limited his turnovers and played the role of game manager well enough to win most of the games he has started so far, which is all the team can really ask for.

Smart pick

The Patriots know the Jets well and vice versa. For that reason, it is difficult to bank on New England scoring enough to win by double digits when the team has managed to do so only once in the previous eight head-to-head matchups.

New York has been a solid defensive team under head coach Todd Bowles, and he knows he cannot afford to let Brady get into an early rhythm early here. Watch for the Jets to pressure the 40-year-old and make him uncomfortable enough to hang tough and cover at online betting sites.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Patriots' last 15 games against the Jets.

The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home against teams with winning records.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.