New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 10, 2017

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 08: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants looks to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first quarter during an NFL game at MetLife Stadium on October 8, 2017 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images)
Steven Ryan/Getty Images

The New York Giants are not a great road team, especially on longer trips. Over the past six seasons, the Giants are just 3-9 straight up and 4-8 against the spread in games played west of the Mississippi. New York heads west this week for a bout with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night at Mile High.

      

NFL point spread: The Broncos opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.7-7.9 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

     

Why the Giants can cover the spread

As bad as the Giants are, still winless on the season, their last three losses have come by a total of 10 points. They're also 2-1 ATS over that span. Last Sunday New York blew a late lead and lost a tough one to the Chargers, 27-22.

The Giants led Los Angeles 9-0 early, and 22-20 late, but fell down on a Chargers touchdown with three minutes to go. New York then reached the Los Angeles 48-yard line with a minute left before quarterback Eli Manning threw an interception on a fourth down.

On the day, New York outrushed Los Angeles 152-124, the first time they've done that this season. But an earlier Manning fumble led directly to the Chargers' game-winning score, and that was the difference. The Giants also failed on a two-point conversion.

Two weeks ago, New York lost at Tampa Bay 25-23 on a field goal at the buzzer. And just before that the Giants lost at Philadelphia 27-24 on another field goal on the final play. But they covered both those games as short dogs.

      

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos bounced back from that loss at Buffalo three weeks ago to beat Oakland last time out 16-10. Denver then enjoyed last week off.

The Broncos bolted to a 10-0 lead on the Raiders, then gutted out the victory from there, sealing it with a Justin Simmons interception inside Denver territory with two minutes to go. They also hung on to cover a four-point spread.

On the afternoon, the Broncos outrushed Oakland 143-24 and won time of possession by a 33/27 split. Again the Denver defense led the way, limiting the Raiders to a 2-for-15 performance on third and fourth downs and a lone fluke touchdown.

The Broncos have now outgained and outrushed each of their four opponents this season.

      

Smart pick

Yes, teams like the Giants occasionally rise up from the ridicule to pull surprises, but would anybody be willing to bank on it happening Sunday? This team is beat up both physically and mentally and, for the moment, simply can't be trusted. The smart money here sides with Denver at online betting sites.

      

NFL betting trends

The Giants are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Broncos.

The total has gone over in three of the Giants' last four games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home in October.

      

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

Related

    Gronk Announces Retirement

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Gronk Announces Retirement

    via Bleacher Report

    Gronk's 2019 Return Still Possible

    TE's agent doesn't rule out potential comeback

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Gronk's 2019 Return Still Possible

    TE's agent doesn't rule out potential comeback

    Tim Daniels
    via Bleacher Report

    Top Players to Retire from NFL by Age 30

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Top Players to Retire from NFL by Age 30

    Joseph Zucker
    via Bleacher Report

    Watch Manziel's AAF Debut for the Memphis Express

    NFL logo
    NFL

    Watch Manziel's AAF Debut for the Memphis Express

    Megan Armstrong
    via Bleacher Report