Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Over the previous three seasons, the Jacksonville Jaguars won a total of two road games. However, they've already won one road game this year, and they're quietly 12-9-2 against the spread over their last 23 road trips, thanks to some favorable spreads.

The Jags will play as big road dogs when they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field.

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.9-15.8 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

One week after blowing out Baltimore in London, the Jags suffered a tough 23-20 overtime loss at the Jets last week. Jacksonville trailed that game in the fourth quarter 20-10, forged a tie on a short field goal with a minute to go but lost on a New York field goal with less than a minute remaining in OT.

The Jaguars had a chance to take a late lead but were forced to settle for a game-tying field goal after reaching the Jets four-yard line. In fact, Jacksonville scored earlier on that drive on a Leonard Fournette catch-run from 23 yards out, but the play was negated by a holding penalty. Then, late in overtime, the Jags had a chance to hang on for the tie, but a questionable unsportsmanlike penalty on captain Paul Posluszny set New York up for its game-winning kick.

Two weeks ago, Jacksonville put on one of its best performances in recent memory, routing the Ravens 44-7. The Jags outgained Baltimore that day 410-186. Through four games, Jacksonville ranks second in the league in rushing, averaging 149 yards per game, fifth in scoring at 27 points per game and 10th in total defense, holding opponents to 313 YPG.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh, sitting among the favorites at +800 (bet $100 to win $800) on the Super Bowl odds, just bounced back from that overtime loss at Chicago to beat those Ravens last week 26-9. The Steelers led 19-0 at the half, allowed Baltimore to get within 19-9 late in the third but held on from there and covered as four-point favorites on the road.

On the day, Pittsburgh outgained the Ravens 381-288, outrushed them 173-82 and held a 35/25 time of possession advantage. Running back Le'Veon Bell led the way with his best performance of this season, rushing for 144 yards, adding 42 on receptions and scoring two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Steelers defense created three turnovers, recorded four sacks and held Baltimore to a single touchdown. For the moment, Pittsburgh only ranks 21st in total offense at 322 YPG but second in total defense, allowing just 267 YPG.

Smart pick

The Steelers are probably going to win this game, but if the Jags can run the ball and hang on to it, they could keep this one close. Also, the spread on this contest is probably inflated by a field goal or so. Smart money here at online sports betting sites takes Jacksonville plus the points.

NFL betting trends

The favored team is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.

The total has gone under in 13 of the Steelers' last 15 games in the early afternoon.

The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games at home in October.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.