Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 4, 2017

GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 28:  Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on September 28, 2017 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers (3-1) will visit the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) on Sunday as small road underdogs and try to continue their recent dominance in this series.

The last time the Packers visited AT&T Stadium came in the Divisional Round of last year's playoffs, as they blew an early lead against the Cowboys but still came through to knock out the NFC's top seed in a 34-31 overtime victory.

    

NFL point spread: The Cowboys opened as two-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (line updates and matchup report available here)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.7-13.5 Cowboys (NFL picks on every game available here)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

    

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has won six of the past seven meetings with Dallas straight up, covering the spread in five of them. A lot of that has to do with the impressive play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 355 yards in that previous matchup.

Rodgers has more confidence as a veteran in this series than second-year counterpart Dak Prescott of the Cowboys, and that will be key again.

    

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas did not drop two in a row at home last season, and the team should learn from some mistakes made in last week's 35-30 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Offensively, Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott were outplayed by Los Angeles' Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, and that should motivate them big-time to bounce back against the Packers.

Not only that, but this is a huge point of revenge for the Cowboys after they saw their outstanding conference-best campaign go to waste a year ago in the loss to Green Bay.

    

Smart pick

The Packers are not looking good physically heading into this matchup, and there is only so much Rodgers can do to lead his team. Green Bay fell apart in the NFC Championship Game against the Atlanta Falcons last season after upsetting Dallas because they were so beat up, and the injuries have already started piling up after the first month.

Packers running back Ty Montgomery may or may not play with broken ribs, and Davante Adams (concussion) is also hoping to suit up following a brutal hit in last week's 35-14 rout of the Chicago Bears. Even if both play, the Cowboys are in much better shape and will be able to rebound with a home victory and cover at online sports betting sites.

    

NFL betting trends

The Packers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Cowboys.

The total has gone over in 14 of the Packers' last 20 games against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as home favorites.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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