NFL Picks Week 5: Advice on Latest Vegas Odds and Spreads for Upcoming Schedule

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorOctober 3, 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell (26) carries the ball during the second half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore, Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Gail Burton/Associated Press

Before the NFL season began, the New England Patriots were the clear Super Bowl LII front-runners.

However, that narrative quickly changed four weeks into the 2017 campaign, and the race for the Lombardi Trophy is now wide open with the Pats at 2-2 and only one undefeated team (the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs) left standing with a bunch of 3-1 squads right behind them.

It remains to be seen if parity will reign this year or whether a few strong contenders emerge from the crowd, but until then here's an early look at some Week 5 spreads and picks.

        

Week 5 Odds and Predictions

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date and Time: Thursday at 8:25 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Patriots -5.5, 56 O/U

The New England Patriots have not allowed fewer than 20 points in any game this season. That's a significant problem, as quarterback Tom Brady and the offense can only do so much to keep them in games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pose a threat because (a) cornerback Brent Grimes is one of the best in the game at his position and (b) no one on the Pats team can stop wideout Mike Evans. Those two factors will be the difference in a close Bucs win.

Pick: Tampa Bay 30, New England 28

               

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Eagles -6.5, 45 O/U

The Philadelphia Eagles have played four games that have been close until the latter part of the final quarter against teams with varying levels of success. Why should we believe anything will be different in this matchup?

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a serious problem for the Eagles, but on the flip side, Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz's elusiveness should be an issue too.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Ultimately, give the slight edge to the home team, but the Cards will cover.

Pick: Philadelphia 23, Arizona 21

           

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Bengals -3, 39 O/U

Both defenses are among the best in the league, so we shouldn't expect much scoring unless sloppy offensive play leads to points off turnovers.

The Bengals look like a completely different team after making a change at offensive coordinator, but the Bills have beaten two teams who have 3-1 records, one on the road (Atlanta).

That's impressive whichever way you slice it. Buffalo will pull out another big win Sunday.

Pick: Buffalo 16, Cincinnati 13

         

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Detroit -3, 43.5 O/U

The Carolina Panthers' offense got its groove back on Sunday, but it was against arguably the NFL's worst defense (the New England Patriots).

The Lions pose a much tougher test, and the Panthers wideouts will have trouble gaining separation against the Detroit cornerbacks.

Carolina's pass rush and interior pressure should keep this game close, but the Lions' passing attack will be too much.

Pick: Detroit 24, Carolina 16

            

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Steelers -8.5, 44 O/U

This is just a bad matchup for Jacksonville, a team with a super-talented secondary and running back but a porous run defense and struggling passing game.

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell could be in for another one of his patented stat lines of 30-plus touches and well over 100 yards as he chews up the clock. On defense, look for the Steelers' pass defense to force a couple turnovers, leading to a comfortable win.

Pick: Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 10

            

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants

Date and Time: Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Giants -3.5, 44.5 O/U

With the way these two winless teams' seasons have gone, it would not be a surprise to see bad luck strike again and this game end in a tie.

Chances are someone will win, though, and the edge goes to the Los Angeles Chargers. Star pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will win some battles against a Giants offensive line that sometimes struggles to protect quarterback Eli Manning.

Pick: Los Angeles 24, New York 20

              

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Browns -1.5, 39 O/U

Outside an abysmal performance in a 45-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders, the New York Jets defense has been quite impressive.

They were respectable in a 21-12 loss to the 3-1 Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park. They held the Miami Dolphins to zero points until the last play of the game, a touchdown catch from wideout DeVante Parker.

Last week, the Jets defense allowed just 13 points in a 23-20 overtime win over Jacksonville (the other seven were courtesy of an 81-yard fumble return for a touchdown and ensuing extra point).

The Cleveland Browns offense has serious problems without wideout Corey Coleman, so look for the Jets to grind out another ugly win.

Pick: New York 17, Cleveland 13

            

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

Date and Time: Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Colts -1.5, 44 O/U

Yes, the Colts just got blown out against the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but they held a halftime lead and were tied at 18 late into the third quarter before the wheels fell off.

SEATTLE, WA - OCTOBER 01: Jacoby Brissett #7 of the Indianapolis Colts points as he rushes for 25 yards in the second quarter of the game against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field on October 1, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jonathan Ferre
Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Led by quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Colts have shown some life in the past few weeks. Back home, and against the winless 49ers, they should be able to hold serve and secure the win.

Pick: Indianapolis 24, San Francisco 20

         

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Date and Time: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Tennessee -3 (no over/under listed)

The spread is subject to change with the status of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, who left Sunday's game against the Houston Texans with a hamstring injury. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, he is "day to day."

If Mariota plays, then the Titans have the clear edge, as the smashmouth offense is hard to stop with him running the show. If not, then Miami has the advantage at home.

Pick (with Mariota): Tennessee 24, Miami 20

Pick (without Mariota): Miami 20, Tennessee 16

         

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders

Date and Time: Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: None

This game is off the board at the moment as Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was just declared out for two to six weeks with a transverse process fracture suffered against the Denver Broncos, per Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Raiders backup E.J. Manuel looked impressive in Carr's place on Sunday, as he completed 11 of 17 passes (including his first eight) for 106 yards. A late interception sealed the Raiders' fate, but Manuel showed promise against the stingy Broncos defense.

Against the reeling Baltimore Ravens, don't be surprised to see Manuel lead the Silver and Black to a big win. 

Pick: Oakland 27, Baltimore 17

            

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Date and Time: Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Rams -2.5, 47 O/U

Although the Seattle Seahawks have a ton of talent and should keep this game close against a high-powered Rams offense, it's hard to ignore the fact their road record (including playoffs) since the beginning of the 2016 season is 3-7-1 (at home, they are 10-1).

Los Angeles is clearly a rejuvenated team under new head coach Sean McVay, and it will be in the driver's seat for the division title with a win here.

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 01:  Head coach Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams stands on the sidelines during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2017 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Pick: Los Angeles 31, Seattle 24

           

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Date and Time: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Dallas Cowboys -2, 52 O/U

This is a rematch of the classic NFC Divisional battle from last season when the Green Bay Packers pulled off the upset over the Dallas Cowboys, 34-31.

It wouldn't be a shock to see a similar story play out, with both offenses lighting up AT&T Field all game. 

This matchup is a coin flip and it's difficult to pick a winner. The slight edge goes to the home side in the game of the week.

Pick: Dallas 30, Green Bay 28

                         

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Date and Time: Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Chiefs -1.5 (no over/under listed)

CARSON, CA - SEPTEMBER 24:  Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs scores a touchdown during the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at the StubHub Center on September 24, 2017 in Carson, California.  (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

The two most exciting rookies in the league will be featured on Sunday Night Football as running back Kareem Hunt and the Kansas City Chiefs face quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans.

This is another matchup that's almost too close to call. The gut feeling here is that Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill breaks out and has a few game-breaking plays in a high-scoring victory.

Pick: Kansas City 30, Houston 27

      

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Date and Time: Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Vikings -3 (no over/under listed)

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will be making his pro debut against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense led by shutdown cornerback Xavier Rhodes, free safety Harrison Smith and an excellent defensive line.

On the opposite side of the ball, talented Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook suffered a horrific knee injury and is out for the year with a torn ACL. He was having an excellent season, and it will be hard for Minnesota to replace that production.

Vikings quarterback Sam Bradfordwho has been out since Week 1 with a knee injurymight play, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Ultimately, the difference will be wideouts Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, who will make some clutch catches in a low-scoring win.

Pick: Minnesota 20, Chicago 13

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