NFL Week 4 Picks: Matchups Guide, Advice and Early Score Predictions

Early-season reactions can be problematic. When a team looks good in one game after a couple of so-so performances, there may be a tendency to give that team more credit than it deserves.

On the other hand, one bad performance leads to quick negative conclusions that may be equally false.

We have an example of this situation when the New Orleans Saints go to Miami to play the Dolphins. The Saints lost their first two games and looked particularly weak on defense. However, they came up with a solid all-around effort in their Week 3 34-13 road win over the Carolina Panthers. 

The Miami Dolphins picked up a solid win in Week 2 over the Los Angeles Chargers, but they were unable to hold it together against the New York Jets in Week 3. Since the Jets are expected to be something of a bottom feeder in 2017, the Dolphins are being downgraded as a result of that defeat.

The Saints are 2.5-point road favorites over the Dolphins, according to OddsShark. That line appears to be a mistake.

The Dolphins are the better team. They are also likely to be quite angry/embarrassed about losing to the Jets, and they will take it out on the Saints.

Jay Cutler is a fairly good fit for the Miami offense, and he has a top runner in Jay Ajayi who can make big plays. Wide receivers Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker are capable of coming up with key catches against a generous New Orleans secondary.

The Saints should be able to move the ball fairly well with Drew Brees under center and a top-flight wide receiver in Michael Thomas, but they are going to be in the chase mode throughout the game, and the Dolphins will remain in control.

Look for the Dolphins to earn the victory here.

Week 4 point spreads and predictions (Line information courtesy of OddsShark)

Matchup, spread, Predicted score

Chicago at Green Bay, GB -7, Green Bay 31, Chicago 20

New Orleans at Miami, NO -2.5, Miami 28, New Orleans 21

L.A. Rams at Dallas, Dallas -8.5, Dallas 28, L.A. Rams 24

Tennessee at Houston, Tenn. -1.5, Tennessee 27, Houston 23

Detroit at Minnesota, NL, Minnesota 31, Detroit 30

Buffalo at Atlanta, Atlanta -8, Atlanta 31, Buffalo 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Pittsburgh -2.5, Baltimore 30, Pittsburgh 23

Cincinnati at Cleveland, Cinn. -3, Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 17

Carolina at New England, NE -9, New England 38, Carolina 9

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets, Jack. -3.5, Jacksonville 24, N.Y. Jets 23

San Francisco at Arizona, Ariz. -7, Arizona 24, San Francisco 20

Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers, LAC -1, Philadelphia 20, L.A. Chargers 17

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay, TB -3, N.Y. Giants 28, Tampa Bay 24

Oakland at Denver, Denver -2.5, Oakland 20, Denver 17

Indianapolis at Seattle, Seattle -13, Seattle 24, Indianapolis 20

Washington at Kansas City, KC-6.5, Washington 24, Kansas City 21

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are coming off a horrific 44-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, so panic has set in with many of the team's supporters.

However, head coach John Harbaugh is not about to fall victim to that kind of thinking and make unnecessary lineup changes. He knows his team, and he knows how to prepare for a big game, especially one at home against the Ravens' archrivals.

The Pittsburgh Steelers appeared to have an easy game in Week 3 against the struggling Chicago Bears, but they fell behind early and had to play catch-up against a team they likely underestimated. The Steelers fell by a 23-17 margin in overtime.

The Steelers were likely looking forward to this game. Pittsburgh earned its way into the playoffs last year with a thrilling win over the Ravens, but that game was in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have struggled in recent trips to Babe Ruth's home town, having dropped their last four games in Baltimore.

The Ravens have done better in Pittsburgh than the Steelers have done in Baltimore, and the Ravens appear to have the emotional edge in this matchup.

Look for a huge bounce-back game from Joe Flacco, who was awful against the Ravens with 28 passing yards and two interceptions.

The Ravens were overwhelmed in their London game, but they will be back on course against the Steelers.

The Ravens will do enough on defense to slow down Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and the Ravens will bounce back with a key victory as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Mark Tenally/Associated Press/Associated Press

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos        

Both the Raiders and Broncos are coming off losses in Week 3, so both teams should be focused on this longstanding rivalry game.

The Broncos will come at the Raiders with one of the most powerful defenses in the league. That unit will have to be much sharper than it was against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, because the Raiders have a slew of skilled weapons in Derek Carr, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.

The Broncos are not as accomplished on the offensive side, but Trevor Siemian is a smart leader who can take advantage of any kind of opening the Raiders defense gives him.

While Siemian is not a gifted deep thrower, he has a couple of top weapons in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders can both run through the defense after making the catch.

The Broncos are 2.5-point favorites, but we can't see the Raiders losing two in a row. They were outplayed badly by the Redskins in Week 3, and they will bounce back with a key road victory.