Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Dolphins and Chargers are not divisional rivals, but they're familiar with each other, having met the last four seasons. And with a win in San Diego last year, Miami is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread over that span.

The Dolphins hope to extend that success, this time in Los Angeles, when they meet the Chargers within the cozy confines of the StubHub Center on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: The Chargers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.6-15.5 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami missed out on opening this season with the rest of the league last week when its game against Tampa Bay was canceled due to Hurricane Irma.

The Dolphins started just 1-4 last year then won nine of their last 11 games to earn a wild-card playoff berth. They lost at Pittsburgh in their first postseason game in nearly a decade but now look forward to taking the next step this year.

Miami only ranked 24th in the NFL last year in total offense at 333 yards per game but ninth in rushing at 114 YPG. And while the Dolphins defense only ranked 29th overall, it also forced 25 turnovers and made 16 interceptions, both of which ranked in the top third of the league.

Miami lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the season to an injury in training camp, so it's going with former Chicago Bear Jay Cutler to start Sunday. The Dolphins vacated Florida last week and have been practicing in a Los Angeles suburb for several days. So travel lag should not be a problem.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers lost a bunch of close games last year, and while they lost another one to start this season, a 24-21 decision at Denver on Monday night, they battled back to nearly force overtime and pushed the spread as three-point dogs.

Los Angeles played the Broncos to a 7-7 tie through the first 25 minutes Monday and let Denver score the next 17 points, but it rallied to pull within a field goal midway through the fourth quarter. The Chargers then drove 38 yards in the final moments and looked like they had re-tied the game on a field goal by rookie Younghoe Koo. But the Broncos had called a freezing time out, and Koo's second attempt was blocked.

After ranking near the bottom of the league last year in turnover ratio, Los Angeles won the turnover battle Monday night 2-1. The one Chargers turnover cost them seven Denver points, but they turned those two takeaways into 14 points.

Smart pick

The Chargers may have moved, but their luck apparently remains the same. They just can't get out of their own way. Meanwhile, as long as Miami doesn't ask Cutler to do too much, they might be fine. Smart money here likes the Dolphins plus the points.

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Chargers.

The total has gone under in 13 of the Dolphins' last 14 games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games in the late afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.