Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

A season after going 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread, Carolina Panthers caught a case of Super Bowl hangover last year, falling to 6-10 SU and 6-9-1 ATS. But the Panthers began this season with a win and a cover, and they will shoot for a 2-0 start when they battle Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, North Carolina.

NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.1-11.0 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills opened this season with a 21-12 win over the Jets, covering at minus-7. Buffalo only led 7-6 at the half and 14-12 through three quarters, but it took a two-score lead early in the fourth on a short Mike Tolbert touchdown plunge, then secured the victory and the cash with two defensive stops and two interceptions.

On the day, the Bills outgained New York 408-214, outrushed the Jets 190-38 and won time of possession by a 33/27 split. Running back LeSean McCoy ran 22 times for 110 yards, Tolbert added 42 on 12 and quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for 224 yards on just 16 completions, with two touchdowns.

Buffalo might have had an easier time of it, but tight end Charles Clay botched a touchdown catch and kicker Steven Hauschka missed a 46-yard field goal.

New Bills head coach Sean McDermott served the last six years as the Panthers defensive coordinator, so perhaps he has some insight as to how to deal with that Carolina defense.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers opened their season with a 23-3 victory at San Francisco, covering at minus-5. Carolina took a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter on a 40-yard Cam Newton-to-Russell Shepard scoring hook-up and eventually pushed that to 23-0 late in the third, before allowing the 49ers to hit the board for the only time with a field goal.

On the afternoon, the Panthers outgained San Francisco 287-217, won the ground battle 116-51 and held a 34/26 advantage in time of possession. Newton only threw the ball 25 times, with a pair of touchdown passes, and only ran the ball six times, which is good for his health.

Meanwhile, the Carolina defense stuffed the 49ers on fourth downs twice in the first half, leading to six Panthers points, and forced two turnovers, leading directly to 14 more Carolina points.

Smart pick

The Panthers slumped to 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS at home last season, but they will improve upon those marks this season. They should also become more dynamic as rookie scat-back Christian McCaffrey takes on a bigger role. Meanwhile, Buffalo was lucky it opened against such a bad team like the Jets. The smart cash here likes Carolina.

NFL betting trends

The visiting team is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

The Bills are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in Week 2.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.