Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Odds, Analysis and NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons may be the defending NFC champions. but the bumbling Chicago Bears actually hold the upper hand in the recent series between the teams, winning 10 of the last 13 meetings outright, going 8-2 against the spread over the last 10. Atlanta opens this season as a favorite on the road against Chicago on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as six-point favorites; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.4-22.5 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta finished 11-5 last year to win the NFC South. The Falcons then put up 36 points on Seattle and 44 on Green Bay to win the NFC championship for the first time in 20 years. And they led New England in the Super Bowl 28-3 late into the third quarter. But Atlanta fell victim to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history and lost 34-28 in overtime.

Heading into this season the Falcons are +170 favorites to win the NFC South again. They're also the third choice at +600 (bet $100 to win $600) to win the NFC again and the fifth choice on the Super Bowl board at +1200.

Atlanta ranked second in the league on offense last year at 416 yards per game, and fifth in rushing at 121 yards per game. Defensively the Falcons ranked 25th overall, allowing 371 yards per game, but that figure is probably a bit misleading, considering Atlanta played with the lead so often.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago finished just 3-13 last year but had chances for better. The Bears lost six games by one score or less, and two more in which they led in the second half. Over the offseason Chicago finally dumped quarterback Jay Cutler, then signed Mike Glennon and drafted Mitchell Trubisky to replace him.

The Bears are priced at +2000 to win the NFC North this season, +7500 to win the NFC and +15000 to win the Super Bowl. Glennon is only 5-13 as an NFL starter, but he owns a career 30/15 touchdowns/interceptions ratio.

Chicago ranked 15th in offense last year at 357 yards per game and 15th in defense, allowing 347 yards per game. Rankings like that are much more indicative of a .500 team, rather than one that loses 13 games. Chicago won the most recent meeting with Atlanta 27-13 back in 2014.

Smart pick

Atlanta owns a clear advantage on offense, with Matt Ryan and the passing game, but Chicago can run the ball a bit can play some defense. Also, teams that make the Super Bowl one season are almost always overrated on the Vegas lines the following season. This might look like a mismatch on paper, but the smart money here bets the Bears.

NFL betting trends

The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears.

The total has gone under in eight of the Falcons' last nine games against the Bears.

The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in the early afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.