Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Chicago Cubs will host the opener of a key National League Central series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday as small home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Cubs (77-63) lead the Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals (both 72-68) by five games in the race for the division title with 22 games left to play in the regular season.

Betting line: The Cubs opened as -148 favorites (wager $148 to win $100), according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.2-3.8, Cubs (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Brewers can pay on the MLB lines

Milwaukee has the better starting pitcher in Jimmy Nelson (11-6, 3.59 ERA), who has performed well in his last four outings. The Brewers have won all four of those games, as Nelson allowed three earned runs or less each time.

In his last start, Nelson threw seven shutout innings against the Washington Nationals in a 1-0 victory last Friday, allowing just three hits with three walks and 11 strikeouts.

Why the Cubs can pay on the MLB lines

While Nelson has been superior overall this season, Chicago's John Lackey (11-10, 4.74) has been at his best down the stretch for the defending NL Central champions. The 38-year-old veteran has lost just once since June 28, going 6-1 in 10 starts, seeing his ERA drop half a run during that stretch.

Like Nelson, Lackey tossed seven shutout innings in his most recent outing, scattering three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 2-0 win over the Atlanta Braves last Friday as well. The Cubs took two of three at Milwaukee the last time these teams met at the end of July at Miller Park, and they will be poised for another series win.

Smart betting pick

This is a much bigger game for the Brewers, who have lost seven of 12 to Chicago this year. Another setback to kick off this series, and Milwaukee will at best pick up one game on the Cubs by winning the last two. With a victory, the Brewers can put themselves in great position for a series win, and they also get to host another four-game set at the end of the month.

It is telling that Milwaukee is only a small dog in this spot on the Vegas lines, so take the road team to pull off the upset.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Milwaukee's last six games.

The total has gone under in 11 of Milwaukee's last 12 games on the road.

Chicago is 9-1 in its last 10 games at home.

All MLB odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.