Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Thanks to their epic comeback in last year's Super Bowl the New England Patriots carry a 10-game straight-up winning streak into this season and an eight-game winning streak against the spread. Can the Patriots extend those runs when they open the 2017 NFL campaign against the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night at home?

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.5-21.9 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs won 10 of their last 12 games last season to finish 12-4 and claim their first AFC West title since 2010. Unfortunately, Kansas City then fell at home to Pittsburgh in a divisional-round playoff game 18-16, missing out on forcing overtime thanks to a holding call on a late two-point conversion. Heading into this season the Chiefs are priced at +240 to win the AFC West again.

Kansas City actually got outgained last year by 26 yards per game, and outrushed by a 121-109 per-game margin. But the Chiefs made up for those deficits by leading the league with a plus-16 turnover margin and scoring five defensive touchdowns. The Chiefs also went 9-7 ATS last year and 3-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog on the betting lines.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots survived Tom Brady's four-game suspension and Rob Gronkowski's injuries last season to finish 14-2 and win the AFC East for the eighth straight year. New England then drubbed Houston and the Steelers to win the AFC championship before rallying from a 28-3 third-quarter deficit to defeat Atlanta in the Super Bowl 34-28 in overtime.

Entering this season the Patriots are +190 betting favorites to repeat as conference champs and +325 favorites to win the Super Bowl again.

New England outgained opponents last year by 50 yards per game and outrushed foes by a 117-89 margin. And numbers like that are conducive toward covering spreads, as evidenced by the Patriots' 13-3 ATS mark of last year, the best in the league. New England also went 7-2 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown on the spread.

Smart pick

These teams met not all that long ago, in the 2016 playoffs, a 27-20 New England victory. And not all that much has changed since then. The Patriots will probably win this one, too, but the smart money wagers the Chiefs plus the points at online sports betting sites.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

The Patriots are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.

The total has gone over in six of the Chiefs' last eight games in September.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.