Fantasy Football Week 1: Opening Rankings, Projections, Early Waiver-Wire Tips

If you play daily fantasy football, or if you participate in season-long leagues and are deciding who to start and sit, then check out the lines posted for games by the Las Vegas sportsbooks. Usually, they are good predictors of how a game might play out.

For example, a matchup with a high point total (e.g. 50-plus) could foreshadow an offensive shootout. Therefore, one might consider rostering a player who is participating in that game as opposed to another with a lower total.

That philosophy will be used as a guide as some Week 1 projections are made below. All lines are via OddsShark.

Standard Top-10 Rankings and Projections

Quarterback

1. Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans) vs. Oakland Raiders: 300 yards, 3 TD, 40 rushing yards, 1 Rush TD (32 points)

2. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 350 yards, 4 TD (30 points)

3. Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders) vs. Tennessee Titans: 350 yards, 3 TD (28 points)

4. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. San Francisco 49ers: 250 yards, 2 TD, 40 rushing yards, 1 Rush TD (28 points)

5. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Green Bay Packers: 325 yards, 3 TD, 30 rushing yards (28 points)

6. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Chicago Bears: 300 yards, 3 TD (24 points)

7. Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Washington Redskins: 250 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (21 points)

8. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Seattle Seahawks: 300 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (19 points)

9. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Cleveland Browns: 250 yards, 2 TD (18 points)

10. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Miami Dolphins: 250 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (17 points)

The Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders matchup has the highest over-under point total on the board at 50.5.

On paper, that looks pretty accurate, as both teams have excellent offenses and will be playing in a friendly scoring environment (the early National Weather Service forecast is 80 degrees and sunny in Nashville on Sunday).

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota could be primed for a big game in the air and on the ground. If the Titans can establish the run game early with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, that should allow Mariota to lead his team to a big day. He should accrue some extra points on the ground as well.

Running Back

1. David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) vs. Detroit Lions: 150 rushing yards, 5 catches, 60 receiving yards, 2 TD (33 points)

2. Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Cleveland Browns: 130 rushing yards, 5 catches, 50 yards, 2 TD (30 points)

3. Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) vs. San Francisco 49ers: 70 rushing yards, 5 catches, 50 yards, 2 TD (24 points)

4. LeSean McCoy (Buffalo Bills) vs. New York Jets: 150 rushing yards, 4 catches, 30 receiving yards, 1 TD (24 points)

5. Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Denver Broncos: 70 rushing yards, 2 catches, 20 yards, 2 TD (21 points)

6. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Chicago Bears: 80 rushing yards, 5 catches, 50 receiving yards, 1 TD (19 points)

7. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) vs. Indianapolis Colts: 100 rushing yards, 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD (19 points)

8. Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) vs. New Orleans Saints: 80 rushing yards, 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD (18 points)

9. DeMarco Murray (Tennessee Titans) vs. Oakland Raiders: 80 rushing yards, 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD (17 points)

10. Lamar Miller (Houston Texans) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 70 rushing yards, 2 catches, 20 yards, 1 TD (15 points)

When considering running backs, take a look at home teams favored by a large amount. Those teams may be able to control time of possession and the pace of play through the running game. Also, they'll have less of a need to pass, as they'll be leading and presumably milking the clock in the second half.

The Bills are currently 9.5-point favorites over the New York Jets, who just traded one of their best defensive players in Sheldon Richardson. That's a good sign for Bills running back LeSean McCoy, who could be in line to carry the load for a Bills offense that may struggle in the air this year.

Wide Receiver

1. Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Green Bay Packers: 10 catches, 150 yards, 2 TD (27 points)

2. Brandin Cooks (New England Patriots) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 6 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD (19 points)

3. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Miami Dolphins: 12 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD (19 points)

4. Amari Cooper (Oakland Raiders) vs. Tennessee Titans: 8 catches, 120 yards, 1 TD (18 points)

5. Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Chicago Bears: 9 catches, 120 yards, 1 TD (18 points)

6. Chris Hogan (New England Patriots) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 4 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD (15 points)

7. Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Cleveland Browns: 7 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD (15 points)

8. Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers) vs. San Francisco 49ers: 6 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD (13 points)

9. DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD (12 points)

10. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers) vs. Seattle Seahawks: 5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD (12 points)

Three games have point totals 50 or above, including a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

That over-under is currently listed at 50 points, with the Packers favored by just three.

How will each team score? On the Seahawks' side, at least, the Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin connection is the best bet. Baldwin doesn't get enough credit for how well he's played in the last two years. He scored 14 touchdowns in 2015 and caught 94 passes for 1,128 yards (both career highs) last season.

The Packers secondary is going to have a lot of trouble stopping Baldwin, who could be the best fantasy producer at wideout this week.

Tight End

1. Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Washington Redskins: 9 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD (15 points)

2. Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers) vs. San Francisco 49ers: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD (14 points)

3. Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings) vs. New Orleans Saints: 8 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD (14 points)

4. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD (12 points)

5. Jimmy Graham (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Green Bay Packers: 6 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD (12 points)

6. Jared Cook (Oakland Raiders) vs. Tennessee Titans: 5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD (11 points)

7. Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Miami Dolphins: 5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD (11 points)

8. Hunter Henry (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Denver Broncos: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD (11 points)

9. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs): vs. New England Patriots: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD (10 points)

10. Delanie Walker (Tennessee Titans) vs. Oakland Raiders: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD (10 points)

The Carolina Panthers are favored by 5.5 points over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, with the over-under listed at 48. That means the Carolina Panthers' implied Vegas total is 26.75 points, or close to four touchdowns.

That's a fairly high total, but the Panthers scored 46 against San Francisco last year. Tight end Greg Olsen led the Panthers in receiving yards, as he caught five passes for 122 yards and a score.

Olsen could have another big game against San Francisco this year. He's been one of the most consistent offensive players at any position over the past few years and hasn't shown signs of slowing down. He could be in line for a big game.

Kicker

1. Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 1 FG (40-49), 2 FG (50-plus), 1 PAT (15 points)

2. Dustin Hopkins (Washington Redskins) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 3 FG (40-49), 2 PAT (14 points)

3. Younghoe Koo (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Denver Broncos: 3 FG (40-49), 2 PAT (14 points)

4. Steven Hauschka (Buffalo Bills) vs. New York Jets: 1 FG (30-39), 2 FG (40-49), 1 PAT (12 points)

5. Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland Raiders) vs. Tennessee Titans: 1 FG (40-49), 1 FG (30-39), 3 PAT (10 points)

6. Dan Bailey (Dallas Cowboys) vs. New York Giants: 1 FG (40-49), 1 FG (50-plus), 1 PAT (10 points)

7. Nick Folk (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Miami Dolphins: 1 FG (30-39), 1 FG (40-49), 2 PAT (9 points)

8. Chandler Catanzaro (New York Jets) vs. Buffalo Bills: 2 FG (40-49) (8 points)

9. Wil Lutz (New Orleans Saints) vs. Minnesota Vikings: 1 FG (30-39), 1 FG (40-49), 1 PAT (8 points)

10. Connor Barth (Chicago Bears) vs. Atlanta Falcons: 1 FG (30-39), 1 FG (40-49), 1 PAT (8 points)

We're eschewing the Vegas total talk to state the obvious in this section: Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is the best in the NFL at his position, and it's not even close.

He went 27-for-27 on extra points and 38-of-39 on field goals last year. Most impressively, he went a perfect 10-for-10 on field goals measuring 50 yards or more.

Tucker will take part in a tough division matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals that should be low-scoring on paper, but that may mean he gets more opportunities to knock in a few field goals as Baltimore struggles to reach the red zone.

Defense

1. Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 TD, 1-6 PA (26 points)

2. Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers: 5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD, 7-13 PA (19 points)

3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts: 4 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD, 7-13 PA (18 points)

4. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 1-6 PA (16 points) 

5. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos: 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 14-20 PA (11 points)

6. New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 7-13 PA (8 points)

7. Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 7-13 PA (8 points) 

8. Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 14-20 PA (7 points) 

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins: 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 14-20 PA (6 points)

10. New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 14-20 PA (5 points)

Back to implied totals for a bit, the New York Jets have the lowest on the entire board at 15.5. That's barely above two touchdowns!

It almost seems like Vegas is being generous given how the Jets offense looked this preseason. In four games, the Jets averaged just 15 points, although that number is inflated by quarterback Bryce Petty and running back Bilal Powell dominating a bunch of New York Giants backups during a 28-point second half of a 32-31 loss.

Therefore, expect Buffalo to keep the Jets offense at bay throughout the afternoon, especially if LeSean McCoy is chewing up the clock with long gains on the ground.

Early Waiver-Wire Tips

Remember that the football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don't ditch a player because he had a bad first game in favor of someone on the waiver wire who did well.

Also, don't go all out for someone who had a monster game if it means wasting your free agent budget or ruining your waiver priority ranking (unless you feel strongly).

Case in point: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns was on nobody's fantasy radar leading into the 2014 season, and in Week 1, he posted an excellent stat line to the tune of four catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns. His stats the rest of the way? A so-so 47 catches for 567 yards and four touchdowns. Week 1 production isn't necessarily a sign of future success.

Ultimately, the suggestion here is to avoid making snap decisions so early in the fantasy football season.