New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Boston Red Sox (69-51) open a key three-game series against the New York Yankees (65-55) on Friday as small home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Red Sox just won two straight over the St. Louis Cardinals in interleague play while the Yankees swept a four-game set from the New York Mets.

Betting line: The Red Sox opened as -145 favorites (wager $145 to win $100); the total is at nine runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report.)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.3-4.1, Red Sox (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York enjoyed some early-season success vs. Boston, taking six of the first eight meetings. Even though the Yankees have dropped three of the past four in the regular-season series, they still have a lot of confidence heading into this matchup against their chief rivals.

New York will send 24-year-old left-hander Jordan Montgomery (7-6, 3.94 ERA) to the hill off a no-decision in his last start facing the Red Sox last Sunday. Montgomery pitched well, allowing only one run and two hits in 5.1 innings with three walks and four strikeouts in an eventual 3-2 loss.

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

Boston will counter Montgomery with a southpaw too in Drew Pomeranz (12-4, 3.39), who is performing the way the team hoped he would after acquiring him last season. Pomeranz has won each of his last two starts, allowing four runs and 14 hits in a combined 13 innings with three walks and 13 strikeouts.

The Red Sox outscored the Yankees and Chicago White Sox 14-6 in those games. In fact, Pomeranz is 2-0 in three outings against New York this season with a 4.08 ERA, six walks and 19 strikeouts.

Smart betting pick

Boston knows what's at stake in this home series and visits New York again for a four-game set at the end of the month. Pomeranz has hit his stride with the Red Sox and become their most reliable starter not named Chris Sale. He has not suffered a loss since June 11, surrendering more than three runs just once in his previous 11 outings.

Meanwhile, Montgomery does not have the same experience as a rookie, and he has gone 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 road starts. Bank on Boston to pick up the victory.

MLB betting trends

New York is 5-2 in its last seven games on the road.

The total has gone under in 13 of New York's last 19 games on the road.

The total has gone under in 13 of Boston's last 19 games at home.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.