New York Mets: Final 2017 Trade-Deadline Predictions, Fact or Fiction
Sitting nine games out of the wild-card race and nearly as many games under .500, the New York Mets aren't thinking postseason. Their mindset as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches is finding ways to better their team for 2018 and beyond and the easiest way to do that right now is by making some deals.
Mets executives are no doubt fielding calls from numerous contending teams, each hoping they can raid the Mets' big-league roster for instant help. Consequently, the Mets are looking to unload contracts from their $167.7 million payroll in exchange for players who can help in the majors right away or those who can bolster their prospect pool in the minors.
There are quite a few free agents on the roster and several of those players could be coveted by other clubs looking for a veteran bat or experienced arm. Getting something good in return for any of those players can only help the Mets' long-term goals.
Who are the Mets most likely to part ways with and what do they hope to get in exchange? Follow along as we detail their situation as we move closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
Team Needs
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Minor league depth
The Mets have two top-tier prospects ready to get promoted in shortstop Amed Rosario and first baseman Dominic Smith, whom MLBPipeline.com rank as the third- and 51st-best prospects in the minors, respectively. After that the talent level drops off significantly, as evidenced by Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter listing the Mets' farm system as 20th out of 30 teams.
Being a seller at the trade deadline can often help in this area, though Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wrote the Mets aren't likely to land any players who will "energize" their fanbase because what they have to offer isn't particularly stellar.
"This will not be a satisfying week for Mets fans in that vein," Davidoff wrote.
The key for the Mets will be identifying players within other teams' farm systems who have yet to show their true potential and thus can be acquired for minimal cost.
Third base
It's been nearly 14 months since David Wright last played for the Mets. Having undergone neck surgery in June 2016 he has spent this entire season on the disabled list. The 34-year-old has played only 75 games since the start of the 2015 season but is under contract through 2020.
The Mets have gone with a hodgepodge of options at third this year, alternating between Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes and T.J. Rivera, but that position has produced team lows in home runs (10), on-base percentage (.298) and OPS (.694).
While most of the players the Mets are likely to acquire before the deadline will be of the minor league variety it wouldn't hurt to get someone who can be a long-term solution at third.
Starting pitching
With the never-ending bad luck the Mets have had in recent years with their pitching staff there will always be a need for arms to fill in. Already this season they've used 11 different starters, with five of those guys on the disabled list including Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler was put on the 10-day DL on Monday with a stress reaction in his right arm, his second time on the injury list this season after having tendinitis in June. Only Jacob deGrom has gone the entire season without missing a start, winning for the eighth straight time on Monday.
Top Trade Chips
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RF Jay Bruce
After being limited to just 50 games in 2016 because of injury, Bruce is having a bounce-back season that's seen him slug 25 home runs with 67 RBI and an .847 OPS. The 30-year-old is at the end of a seven-year, $63 million contract but is making $13 million this season and has a modified no-trade clause, both of which could affect his chances of being traded.
2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera demanded a trade in June after being moved from shortstop to second but walked back those words not long after, telling Dan Martin of the New York Post "I always want to be here." The 31-year-old has a team option for 2018 with a $2 million buyout so teams looking for a middle infielder that isn't solely a two-month rental may come calling.
1B Lucas Duda
With Dominic Smith hitting .339 with 15 home runs and 68 RBI at Triple-A, Duda's time with the Mets is running out. The 31-year-old, who made his major league debut with the Mets in 2010, has an .879 OPS with 17 homers and can fill a need for teams looking for a left-handed slugger.
CF Curtis Granderson
Well past his prime and due the remainder of his $15 million salary for 2017, Granderson isn't particularly appealing unless a contender feels he can reverse his severe offensive slide when the playoffs come around. The 36-year-old can still crush the ball, when he makes contact, and he has nine career postseason home runs.
RP Addison Reed
By far the Mets' most valuable trade asset, Reed can help any number of teams looking for bullpen help. The 28-year-old has returned to the closer role he had at the beginning of his career, converting 18-of-20 chances with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 47 appearances.
The Dream Scenario
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The best possible situation the Mets could find themselves in at the trade deadline is to be the team that contenders call on at the last minute with a desperate need. That gives them even more bargaining power than they already have.
The buyers all have their wish lists and many are competing for the same available players. As each one comes off the board via a trade the options decrease and those contenders have to decide just how badly they need to make a move.
That's when panic sets in and teams are more likely to overpay for lesser talent. Most of the Mets' trade pieces aren't considered make-or-break additions but as the deadline gets closer they become more attractive. Suddenly a guy like Curtis Granderson or even Jose Reyes, despite their age and offensive struggles, become very valuable to a desperate contender.
Fact or Fiction on Latest Trade Rumors
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Lucas Duda goes to the Yankees (Fiction): It's been 14 years since New York's baseball teams pulled off a trade, when the Yankees acquired pitcher Armando Benitez from the Mets for three prospects. Joel Sherman of the New York Post thinks it's way overdue for another deal to be had, with Duda the centerpiece.
Sherman goes so far as to list four sets of players for the Mets to pick from among the Yankees' assets, though one option (Rob Refsnyder) has already been dealt by the Yankees to Toronto. That alone wouldn't be what prevents this trade from happening as much as the fact Duda is not the Yankees' first choice for a left-handed hitting first baseman: That would be Oakland's Yonder Alonso, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand.
The Mets could ship Duda but it isn't likely to be to the Bronx.
Asdrubal Cabrera will get dealt before July ends (Fact): Mike Puma of the New York Post reported the Mets are "relatively confident" that they can trade both Cabrera and reliever Addison Reed before the deadline. Unloading Reed seems like a given, since he's an established closer who has also worked as a setup man during his career and plenty of contenders are in need of help on the back end.
Finding a suitor for Cabrera isn't as easy, but his recent move to second base makes him more enticing for teams needing middle infield help. There's also the fact he has a relatively inexpensive team option for 2018, so he isn't being labeled strictly as a rental player.
Further indication Cabrera isn't long for the Mets: FanRag's Jon Heyman tweeted Tuesday that top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario could be promoted "just after the trade deadline."
Trading Jacob deGrom is a realistic option (Fiction): As the only starting pitcher the Mets have who's managed to avoid injury and throw well all season, deGrom is far and away their best player. He's under team control through 2020 but through arbitration he figures to get much more next year than the $4.05 million he's earning this season.
There's no doubt a long list of teams that would love to have the 29-year-old righty, who is 12-3 (with eight straight wins) with a 3.30 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 133.2 innings. The Houston Astros are the team that's been most commonly linked to pursuing deGrom, with Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci (via the Sporting News) saying "in a perfect world—and in an indication of how high they're shooting—the Astros would love to add Mets ace Jacob deGrom."
Yes, deGrom would command more return than any other Mets player, possibly more than all the rest combined. But there's no indication they'd seriously make such a trade unless an offer blew them away, and that doesn't look to be happening.
Final Deadline Predictions
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It's a pretty safe bet that the New York Mets team that will be on the field for the Aug. 1 game at Colorado won't look much like the one they sent out on Opening Day. It's already very different thanks to numerous injuries to the pitching staff and inconsistent offensive production up and down the lineup, but the upcoming non-waiver trade deadline will lead to even more change.
Closer Addison Reed is as good as gone, all but assured of being dealt to a contender, while infielder Asdrubal Cabrera is a pretty safe bet to be traded as well. Lucas Duda is the next most likely to depart, though his chances of sticking around are much better than the other two.
Also look for at least one other player from the Mets' many assets to depart, helping to clear more room for top prospects like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith to get into action in the majors.
Statistics are provided by Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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