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Will Dan Gilbert Remember 'Lesson' from LeBron James' First Exit from Cleveland?
July 19, 2017
After the dust had settled following LeBron James' exit from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2010, majority owner Dan Gilbert swore he wouldn't make the same mistake twice.
He wasn't just referring to his famous font choice of Comic Sans. It was the way his ownership group would handle a star player's impending free agency if their desire to return was unclear.
"The big lesson was if a player is not willing to extend, no matter who they are, no matter where they are playing, no matter what kind of season you had, you cannot risk going into a summer and having them leave in unrestricted free agency and get nothing back for it," Gilbert said in 2012, via Cleveland.com's Jodie Valade. "It's not the player's fault. That's on ownership."
James was a free agent in the summers of 2015 and 2016, but there was little worry about him leaving Northeast Ohio. Not after the team had pushed the Golden State Warriors to six games with an injury-depleted roster or after it won the franchise's first NBA title.
The summer of 2018, however, appears to be quite different.
Earlier this week, USA Today reported James is both frustrated and concerned with the Cavaliers' lackluster offseason, and the seemingly wide gap between them and the Warriors. It's safe to wonder how committed he is past this season.
James seems likely to walk in unrestricted free agency—again—but would Gilbert hold true to his words and trade his superstar?
Why Gilbert Would Trade James
A businessman who owns Quicken Loans and whose companies employ more people than any other employer in Detroit, Gilbert clearly doesn't like to come out on the losing end of a deal.
Losing James isn't ideal, of course, but getting something in return this time would ease some pain.
His desire for power has severed relationships before.
While Golden State gave general manager Bob Myers an extension after Cleveland beat their rivals in the 2016 Finals, David Griffin was ignored by Gilbert, who chose to pay head coach Tyronn Lue $35 million over five years instead.
The reason Griffin and the Cavs parted ways in June wasn't money but rather the autonomy over the front office that Gilbert refused to grant.
"He wanted Gilbert to get out of the way when it came to trades and contracts," Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com wrote. "Gilbert wanted Griffin to do a better job communicating to ownership, which suggests Gilbert had no intention of taking a back seat."
No matter who they are...
James is the best player in Cavaliers history, the greatest talent in the league today and perhaps the best player of all time.
A chosen departure would be a tough pill to swallow.
That said, Gilbert could get a significant haul for James—provided he was dealt to a team he was willing to stay with long term. Even at age 32, he averaged 26.4 points on 54.8 percent shooting while putting up a career-best 8.6 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game.
Having carried his teams to seven straight NBA Finals, the 14-year veteran is showing little sign of slowing down. Players like James, still clinging to the primes of their careers, almost never become available on the trade market.
No matter what kind of season you had...
Cleveland, if healthy, is still a near guarantee to go to the Finals again. Kyrie Irving is 25 and entering his prime. Kevin Love is 28 and coming off his finest season with the Cavs. Tristan Thompson, Kyle Korver and JR Smith are high-level complementary pieces as well.
It's hard to fathom the Cavaliers giving up on a season in which they could be just four wins away from a championship. In the 33 seasons before James, Cleveland had never once advanced as far.
If Gilbert trades James, he'd do so with the next 10 years in mind. He knows that as successful as the 2017-18 season may be, sacrificing one great year for several very good ones may even be better.
It's not the player's fault. That's on ownership.
Gilbert's owned the Cavs since 2005 and watched their value grow by $825 million.
If James leaves, the $1.2 billion estimated value of the franchise would surely drop. Getting something in return would help to lessen the fall, of course.
Clearly, Gilbert has learned that free agents leaving their teams is part of life in the NBA. He seems to have made peace with that. That is, as long as said free agent plays for a different team. Gilbert's words make it appear he's determined to get something instead of risking losing everything, even if his team suffers in the short term.
Why Gilbert Would Not Trade James
Gilbert is a man who prides himself on image. He transformed Quicken Loans Arena in 2005, changed the uniform scheme twice and redesigns the court every season.
How would it look if he traded the most popular player in franchise history?
James has said previously that he plans on finishing his career in Cleveland. He's made no mention of leaving, wanting to play in another city or abandoning a team that is making annual Finals trips with no true competition in the East.
The only way Gilbert comes out of this with a hint of heroism is if James publicly demands a trade and the return for him turns out to be bountiful. Neither are likely to happen.
Dealing any superstar is extremely difficult. It's tough to gauge what an even deal would be, find a partner with the right ammunition and (in some cases) get the star to agree to a relocation (ask the New York Knicks).
James has a full no-trade clause, meaning he would have to agree to any deal. Given that most teams are at or over the salary cap, near-equal salaries would have to be exchanged. James will be the NBA's second-highest paid player behind Stephen Curry for the 2017-18 season, netting $33.3 million. That's a ton of money to match, especially for teams that know James may leave in a few months.
Consider the last two stars who hit the market, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. The Pacers, determined not to trade George to an Eastern Conference rival, had to settle for Victor Oladipo at $21 million a year and Domantas Sabonis, who averaged 5.9 points on 39.9 percent shooting last year.
The Anthony saga has been drug through the mud for months, with the "keep him/trade him" debate still raging on. Finding a team that James would agree to a trade with would be hard. Finding such a team and then getting fair return? Nearly impossible.
Though James could leave for nothing, Gilbert has to be prepared for such a scenario. The value of Cleveland's franchise dropped 26 percent in 2010, to $355 million. That was even below the 2005 purchase price of $375 million.
From 2014 to 2017, the value jumped from $515 million to its current $1.2 billion. Another 26 percent drop would be $312 million, which would sting even Gilbert and his partners.
If James went on to play five or six more years while leading his new team to titles as Cleveland crumbled back into mediocrity, there would be no repairing Gilbert's image.
The best thing he can do at this point is fill the vacancies in the front office and let the new hires do their jobs to get this roster Warriors-ready.
Even though his previous sentiments make it sound like he would be willing to trade James, Gilbert can't afford to take that kind of hit—both in his reputation and his wallet.
Greg Swartz is the Cleveland Cavaliers' lead writer for Bleacher Report. Stats provided by NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.