Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

Two teams that struggled in the first half of the season will try to right the ship when they open a three-game series in Baltimore on Friday, as the Orioles (42-46) host the Chicago Cubs (43-45) in a near-pick'em matchup.

The defending World Series champion Cubs seem to have a better shot to win their division, sitting 5.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central.

Betting line: The Orioles opened as -111 favorites (wager $111 to win $100); the total is at 10 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.6-4.0, Orioles (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Cubs can pay on the MLB lines

Chicago made a major deal on Thursday when the team acquired starting pitcher Jose Quintana from the crosstown White Sox for some top prospects. While Quintana will not make his debut for the Cubs until Sunday in Baltimore, they should instantly have some more confidence heading into the second half as they attempt to repeat.

Lefty Mike Montgomery (1-6, 3.75 ERA) will get the nod here in the series opener, and he hopes to break a personal three-game skid in this spot. His ERA is 2.92 under the lights this year.

Why the Orioles can pay on the MLB lines

The Orioles have won two in a row following a five-game losing streak, and they stand 7.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the lead in the American League East. They were early contenders to win the division title before falling behind the Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, and this team can play better.

Baltimore righty Kevin Gausman (5-7, 5.85) is the perfect example, as he has had his good moments along with the bad. Gausman has been much better at home this year, though, going 3-3 in 10 starts, with a 4.45 ERA compared to 2-4 with a 7.98 ERA on the road.

Smart betting pick

One of these teams figures to make a positive move after the MLB All-Star break, and bettors should keep a close eye on Chicago. The Cubs went all out to acquire Quintana, and that trade alone proves how badly they want to get back to the playoffs this season. They are 9-4 in their last 13 interleague road games, so ride them in this spot at sports betting sites and throughout this key series.

MLB betting trends

Chicago is 2-4 in its last six games.

The total has gone under in 16 of Chicago's last 22 games.

The total has gone under in nine of Baltimore's last 13 games.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.