New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Boston Red Sox (50-39) will host the New York Yankees (45-41) in a key American League East series in the first of four games to kick off the second half of the season Friday as small home favorites at the sportsbooks.

The division-leading Red Sox entered the MLB All-Star break on a two-game skid while the Yankees have lost six of eight to fall 3.5 games back, tied for second with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Betting line: The Red Sox opened as -131 favorites (wager $131 to win $100); the total is at nine runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.3-2.8, Red Sox (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York was one of the surprises in the first half of the season, led by baseball's most exciting player in rookie Aaron Judge, who won the Home Run Derby on Monday. The Yankees faded a bit heading into the break but still hope to stay in contention for at least a wild-card spot in the second half.

The Yankees have won seven of the past eight meetings with Boston, going 4-1 in five games between the teams this season. They held the Red Sox to a combined two runs in the four wins, outscoring them 27-7 in the five games overall.

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

While Boston has been slumping recently, losing two straight and four of five, the team had put together a six-game winning streak and won eight of nine prior to that. The Red Sox have also been one of the best home teams in the AL with a 25-14 mark compared to just 25-25 on the road.

The good news obviously is they will play most of their games at Fenway Park in the second half, and New York lost each of the previous four meetings there before taking the first two this year.

Smart betting pick

Boston lefty Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.60 ERA) has really come on lately to become one of the top starters in the team's pitching rotation. Pomeranz has gone 3-0 in his last five starts, lowering his ERA from 4.48 by allowing just six earned runs over his past 29.2 innings. He has surrendered only one home run during that stretch with 11 walks and 25 strikeouts.

Pomeranz also earned the lone victory against the Yankees earlier this season, giving up one earned run and six hits in five innings of a 5-4 win with two walks and seven strikeouts. Bet on him at online sports betting sites to do it again here as the Red Sox prevail.

MLB betting trends

New York is 1-4 in its last five games.

The total has gone over in four of New York's last five games on the road.

Boston is 13-5 in its last 18 games at home.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.