Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Odds, Analysis and MLB Betting Pick

The New York Yankees (33-23) host the Boston Red Sox (32-26) as small home favorites in the rubber game of their key American League East series on Thursday. The teams have split the first two games, with the Yankees bouncing back from a 5-4 loss in the opener by blanking the Red Sox 8-0 on Wednesday behind CC Sabathia.

Betting line: The Yankees opened as -114 favorites (wager $114 to win $100); the total is at eight runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.5-1.9, Yankees (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

While the Red Sox had no answer for Sabathia, they should be a little more confident facing New York's Michael Pineda (6-3. 3.76 ERA) following his worst start of the season. Pineda surrendered five runs and 10 hits in five innings of a 7-5 road loss to the Toronto Blue Jays last time out on Friday, walking three and striking out just one. Last year, he was 0-2 against Boston with a 4.50 ERA in four starts.

The Red Sox will also have the better pitcher on the mound in David Price (1-0, 3.00 ERA), who is coming off his first win of the season on Saturday, allowing one run and three hits in seven innings versus the Baltimore Orioles with one walk and seven strikeouts.

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York has won six of the past seven meetings, and it will be atop the division win or lose here. However, the Yankees do not want Boston getting any closer and had seen Pineda pitch extremely well prior to his last outing. He has been outstanding at home this year, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA, and opponents are hitting only .194 against him there.

New York has also won five of the last six games between the teams at home, with the lone loss coming Tuesday.

Smart betting pick

This is a huge early-season game in this rivalry, as the Red Sox and Yankees do not meet again until July 14. A lot can change between now and then, with Boston still viewed as the AL East's best despite sitting in second place. Look for the Red Sox to come through with Price pitching a gem to get them within one game.

MLB betting trends

Boston is 11-5 in its last 16 games.

NY Yankees is 4-2 in its last six games at home.

NY Yankees is 6-1 in its last seven games against Boston.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.