Nashville Predators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Game 1 Odds, NHL Betting Pick

The defending-champion Pittsburgh Penguins will host Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday against the Nashville Predators as solid home favorites. The Predators are making their first-ever Stanley Cup Final appearance and will be more rested after ousting the Anaheim Ducks in six games a week ago.

Betting line: The Penguins opened as -140 favorites (wager $140 to win $100); the total is at 5.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.0-2.5, Penguins (NHL picks on every game)

Why the Predators can pay on the NHL lines

Pittsburgh is beat up heading into this championship matchup and went the distance of seven games in the previous two playoff series, the last of which ended on Thursday in double overtime. While Nashville was challenged by Anaheim in the Western Conference Final, the team has played 16 games this postseason compared to 19 for its opponent. That may be a factor later in the series as minutes pile up.

The Predators also have goaltender Pekka Rinne playing at a high level, with a goals-against average of 1.70 and a save percentage of .941 in the playoffs so far.

Why the Penguins can pay on the NHL lines

The Penguins have a huge experience advantage here along with home ice, which helped them versus the Ottawa Senators in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final. They led the NHL in scoring this season with 3.4 goals per game and have carried that through to the postseason by averaging 3.05. Along with Rinne, Pittsburgh center Sidney Crosby will be one of the favorites to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, and he will be looking to take it home for the second year in a row.

Defensively, the team is hurting a bit, but second-year goalie Matt Murray has stepped up nicely in replacing Marc-Andre Fleury, who struggled at times against the Senators. Murray won the Stanley Cup last year as a rookie.

Smart betting pick

These teams have not met much since they play in different conferences. However, the Penguins have won eight of the past 10 meetings dating back to 2010, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.

The Predators are 3-0 in Game 1s on the road during their current playoff run while the Penguins have dropped their first home game in each of the last two series. Those trends will continue as Nashville pulls off the Game 1 upset Monday.

All NHL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.