
NRL Round 12 Betting Preview: Game Odds, Trends, Analysis for Week Ahead
The State of Origin period is the most crucial time of the year for those NRL teams looking to build momentum in their season. Some clubs endure a difficult run with absentees across the next eight weeks, while others can make up considerable ground knowing they will have full-strength sides at their disposal.
It's a really difficult time for rugby league punters, who have to assess exactly how big a difference some teams having their best players unavailable will make. This Saturday's match between the New Zealand Warriors and the Brisbane Broncos is the perfect example.
The Warriors, currently 14th with a 4-7 record, are $1.40 AUD favourites according to AustralianGambling.com.au against the Broncos, who sit second on the table and have won six straight matches but are $3.
The fact this match is in Auckland exacerbates the nature of the market, with Brisbane short of their top six players in this and the Warriors minus just one.
Any team is going to struggle without their six best players, and the fact the Broncos have played so well over the past month probably hurts them because more of their players stood out for selection with Queensland.
Unfortunately being the best team in Queensland, it comes with the territory.
It's a similar issue for the Cronulla Sharks, with the premiers missing Origin quartet James Maloney, Andrew Fifita, Jack Bird and Wade Graham for their clash against the Canterbury Bulldogs on Saturday night.
The Sharks start $1.56 favourites and do have Valentine Holmes available after he was left out of the Queensland squad. The Bulldogs are $2.45 favourites and without New South Wales trio Brett Morris, Josh Jackson and David Klemmer.
In contrast, Friday night's match between South Sydney Rabbitohs and Parramatta Eels features two full-strength sides, with neither of those teams having players called up. It's a bonus that both coaches could probably do without as it reflects both sides' poor start to the season.
The Rabbitohs are 4-7 but go into this match as $1.75 favourites with the Eels, who are also 4-7 at $2.10. These two sides need to make the most of the advantage they gain during this period and start winning if they are to be considered contenders for finals footy.
Much has been expected of the Canberra Raiders this season, and after a hard-fought win over the Eels last week, the Raiders are back to 5-6 and just inside the eight.
They are relatively unscathed by Origin, losing only Josh Papalii, and are $1.42 to knock over the Sydney Roosters ($2.95) when they host them on Sunday.
The Roosters have had a good first 11 weeks of the season, winning eight and losing three, but are without Origin reps Blake Ferguson, Mitchell Pearce, Boyd Cordner, Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra. It would be a massive effort for them to win their first game in the national capital since 2010.

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