San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Odds, Analysis, NBA Playoff Betting Pick

The third-seeded Houston Rockets will look to defend their home court and stave off elimination as solid favorites against the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs for Game 6 on Thursday.

The Rockets are coming off a 110-107 overtime loss at San Antonio in Game 5 on Tuesday in which Spurs star Kawhi Leonard did not play in the extra session due to an ankle injury.

Point spread: The Rockets opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 214, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 115.6-104.4, Rockets (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

Leonard has vowed to play in Game 6 despite injuring his ankle in the third quarter of Game 5 and missing most of the fourth quarter and all of OT. Defensively, that is huge because San Antonio must contain James Harden, who missed some key shots and had some big turnovers at the end of Game 5 even without Leonard playing.

Offensively, San Antonio can again turn to Danny Green and Manu Ginobili as well, with both stepping up to fill his void. The depth of the Spurs can help them keep it close.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

Houston is still the deeper team and can feed off the home crowd here. The Rockets nearly stole Game 5 with an opportunity to close out San Antonio at home in Game 6. Now they face a must-win situation and should be able to take advantage of Leonard’s injury to force a Game 7.

Harden had a triple-double in Game 5 with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, but he needs to rely on his teammates more to make plays. With Nene Hilario out for the rest of the postseason, Houston head coach Mike D’Antoni went with a three-guard lineup in Game 5, making Eric Gordon a starter. Gordon can help take some pressure off Harden, especially at home where he plays better.

Smart betting pick

The Spurs have been extremely successful in potential close-out situations under head coach Gregg Popovich, going 36-15 after winning Game 6 vs. the Memphis Grizzlies on the road in the first round. That will be a bit more challenging this time around, though, without Tony Parker and with Leonard hobbled.

But the Rockets have gone 1-4 straight up and against the spread in the past five home meetings, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, so look for them to win a close game but fail to cover.

NBA betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of San Antonio's last nine games.

The total has gone over in seven of San Antonio's last eight games on the road.

Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.