Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs: Odds, Analysis, NBA Playoff Betting Pick

The San Antonio Spurs will look to take a 3-2 series lead against the Houston Rockets as solid home favorites for Game 5 on Tuesday.

The Spurs are coming off a 125-104 loss at Houston on Sunday as five-point road underdogs, with each home team splitting their first two games in this Western Conference second-round playoff series.

Point spread: The Spurs opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total is at 214.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 109.8-109.7, Spurs (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

The Rockets clearly have the stronger bench of the two teams, especially with San Antonio point guard Tony Parker out the rest of the series due to a knee injury.

Houston star James Harden has not been asked to do too much in most of the games, although he did step up with a series-best 43 points in a 103-92 Game 3 loss, scoring nearly half of his team's points.

Harden may need to be the difference-maker on the road if his Rockets are going to win the series, or at least play like he did in Game 4 when he totaled a game-high 28 points and 12 assists while making more than half his shots.

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

The Spurs are still in control of this series after winning Game 3 at Houston without Parker. Patty Mills stepped up with 15 points off the bench for San Antonio, and his offensive production the rest of the way will be key.

Mills played about the same at home as he did on the road during the regular season, and he was much more aggressive in Game 3 compared to Game 4, taking twice as many shots and getting to the free-throw line five times.

If Mills can feed off the home crowd in Game 5 and turn in his best performance of the series, San Antonio will not only win but cover as well.

Smart betting pick

Home court has not been a big factor in this series yet, although it is usually more of a boost for the benches. The Spurs need to get more from their reserves such as Mills, and the Game 5 winner could well go on to win the series.

San Antonio has gone 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in the past eight home meetings versus the Rockets. Look for those betting trends to continue as the Spurs use their home-court edge to win and cover the spread on the Vegas odds.

NBA betting trends

Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games.

Houston is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

The total has gone over in seven of San Antonio's last eight games.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.