Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Top Horses
The wait is finally over.
The 143rd edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, when a field of 20 horses will race for a $2 million purse and to make history. In what is known as the "most exciting two minutes in sports," a couple of horses stand out as clear favorites, while another might cause some danger during the final lengths of the race.
The pole positions are set. The horses are ready. All there's left to do is watch in awe as some of the fastest horses in the world compete for supremacy.
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And for the bettors out there, may the odds be forever in your favor.
| 1 | Lookin At Lee | Corey Lanerie | Steve Asmussen | +3300 |
| 2 | Thunder Snow | Christophe Soumillon | Saeed bin Suroor | +1800 |
| 3 | Fast and Accurate | Channing Hill | Mike Maker | +6600 |
| 4 | Untrapped | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Steve Asmussen | +5000 |
| 5 | Always Dreaming | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | +450 |
| 6 | State of Honor | Jose Lezcano | Mark Casse | +3300 |
| 7 | Girvin | Mike Smith | Joe Sharp | +1600 |
| 8 | Hence | Florent Geroux | Steve Asmussen | +1600 |
| 9 | Irap | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O’Neill | +1800 |
| 10 | Gunnevera | Javier Castellano | Antonio Sano | +1200 |
| 11 | Battle of Midway | Flavien Prat | Jerry Hollendorfer | +2000 |
| 12 | Sonneteer | Kent Desormeaux | Keith Desormeaux | +4000 |
| 13 | J Boys Echo | Luis Saez | Dale Romans | +2800 |
| 14 | Classic Empire | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | +425 |
| 15 | McCraken | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Ian Wilkes | +600 |
| 16 | Tapwrit | Jose Ortiz | Todd Pletcher | +2800 |
| 17 | Irish War Cry | Rajiv Maragh | Graham Motion | +600 |
| 18 | Gormley | Victor Espinoza | John Shirreffs | +1800 |
| 19 | Practical Joke | Joel Rosario | Chad Brown | +2500 |
| 20 | Patch | Tyler Gaffalione | Todd Pletcher | +3300 |
Predictions
Show: McCraken
Throughout the week and a half leading up to the race, only Irish War Cry has seen his stock rise higher than McCraken's.
With exceptional speed and control around the turn, McCraken has shown his breakaway speed and handle of the track during practice sessions with his jockey and has looked every bit the part of a Kentucky Derby contender, per Marcus Hersh of Daily Racing Form:
McCraken won't jump out to any significant leads during the race, but he's a closer. All he needs to do is stick with the pack until the final lengths because he has that extra gear a lot of horses just don't have. It's what makes him a championship-caliber horse, according to Clay Whitham of Whitham Thoroughbreds.
"He came out of nowhere," Clay said in an interview with the Denver Post. "He really has an interesting personality. He is very much full of himself. He feels like he must be a champion. He's a lot of fun to be around, and he's a challenge for his trainer and his groom. He's a little more rambunctious than you would always prefer him to be."
McCraken has the championship mindset, which favors him since he is pole position No. 15, the same position as five past winners of the Derby, according to OddsShark.
It's a safe bet to assume McCraken will have a top-three finish. Who knows? He might even walk away with second place or, dare I say it, first place.
Place: Irish War Cry
Don't look now, but Irish War Cry could easily be the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner.
As mentioned above, he has looked terrific in the lead up to Saturday. No horse has received more attention based on his workouts and gallop, and he looks like he can take any horse in the field on any given day.
While it's important to remember to take practice sessions with a grain of salt and not get too excited over a good gallop, Irish War Cry's consistency and ability to maneuver around the track at Churchill Downs is a reason why he is being picked as a favorite to win it all by some pundits, such as Hersh and Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form:
But don't take my word for it. Just look at his odds. At +600 (wager $100 to win $600), he has the joint-third-best odds in the race, trailing only Always Dreaming and Classic Empire at +450 and +425 respectively.
Bet on Irish War Cry placing in this year's Derby with confidence. And if you feel bold enough, bet on him to cross the finish line first.
Win: Classic Empire
For all the hype surrounding the other contenders on this list, not forgetting Always Dreaming, Classic Empire is the horse to beat.
After a slow start to 2017 because of a foot abscess, Classic Empire is all systems go and has looked the most dominant horse in competition as of late, including a heart-stopping finish in April's Arkansas Derby that showcased his incredible closing speed over the final lengths of a race.
The safe bet would be Classic Empire placing, but he's +425 for a reason. He has experience on the track, winning both of his career races at Churchill Downs, and his trainer, Mark Casse, started his training career at Churchill Downs as well.
It's safe to say Casse feels he has the home-field advantage, per Jason Frakes of the Courier-Journal (via USA Today): "This is our house. They're coming to play in our house now. This is Classic Empire's house. He's spent more time here than anywhere, so I feel good about that."
There's no need to play it safe and bet on a top-two finish when the odds are so heavily in his favor. Be smart with your money; put your savings on Classic Empire winning it all.
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