Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Chicago Cubs (12-9) will visit the Boston Red Sox (11-10) in the first of three games of their interleague series at Fenway Park on Friday as small road favorites.

In what oddsmakers projected in the preseason as the most likely World Series matchup, the defending champion Cubs have a small lead in the National League Central, while the Red Sox have struggled early on this year.

Betting line: The Cubs opened as -118 favorites (wager $118 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.6-3.4, Cubs (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Cubs can pay on the MLB lines

Chicago has outscored opponents by 20 runs so far this season, finding a way to outslug them to overcome a surprisingly slow start by the starting pitching staff.

Still, Jake Arrieta (3-0, 3.65 ERA) leads the team in wins, ERA and strikeouts with solid numbers through his first four starts, and he will get the ball for the series opener at Boston.

While Arrieta is coming off his worst start of the year, he still struck out eight batters and walked none in six innings of a 12-8 victory to notch his third win.

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

Despite picking up another ace in Chris Sale during the offseason, the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations through the first month of 2017.

It's still early in the season, though, and they have high hopes for lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 4.60) the rest of the way.

Pomeranz gets the call opposite Arrieta, and he has not pitched poorly in his three starts. He gave up five runs and five hits in 4.1 innings of a 7-5 win over the Baltimore Orioles on April 16 but also notched a season-high 10 strikeouts in that outing.

Smart betting pick

Boston has dropped four of five after losing two straight to the New York Yankees at home, which does not bode well heading into this series.

The Red Sox were blanked 3-0 by the Yankees on Thursday, while the Cubs had an off day and got to enjoy Boston.

Scoring a combined three runs in their last four losses is a major concern for the home team, so look for Chicago to back up its position as chalk here by winning its fourth straight at Fenway dating back to 2014.

MLB betting trends

Boston is 1-4 SU in its last five games.

The total has gone over in eight of Chicago's last nine games.

Chicago is 6-2 in its last eight games on the road.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.