Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The Milwaukee Bucks will try to stay alive and force Game 7 against the Toronto Raptors on Thursday as small favorites for Game 6. The Bucks have dropped each of the last two games by double digits since taking a 2-1 series lead with a 104-77 rout of the Raptors in Game 3.

Point spread: The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 195.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 103.6-87.8, Raptors (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Raptors can cover the spread

Toronto has seized momentum away from Milwaukee thanks to a pair of easy wins since getting blown out. The Raptors turned things around with an outstanding defensive performance in an 87-76 victory against the Bucks in Game 4 on the road, with DeMar DeRozan (33 points) and Kyle Lowry (18) accounting for more than half the team's points.

Milwaukee shot just 37 percent from the field and 61.1 percent from the free-throw line (11-of-18). They followed that up by making 57.7 percent from the charity stripe (15-of-26) during a 118-93 loss in Game 5 on Monday. If those shooting woes continue, Toronto should be able to close out the Bucks on the road.

Why the Bucks can cover the spread

Before losing the last two games, Milwaukee had won three of the previous four meetings with the Raptors straight up, going 4-0 against the spread. This after suffering through a seven-game series skid (1-6 ATS).

The Bucks simply need to rebuild their confidence and remember how they dominated Toronto in two of the first three games of the series.

The key to staving off elimination will be getting Giannis Antetokounmpo to perform better at the Bradley Center. He is averaging 27.3 points on the road but just 16.5 at home in the series.

Smart betting pick

The Raptors flipped a switch following their brutal loss in Game 3 and have looked like the team most bettors expected heading into the postseason. They have won 16 of the previous 20 meetings with Milwaukee dating back to 2013 with a 12-7-1 ATS mark during that stretch.

While the Bucks had their moments early in the series, that time has passed, so look for Toronto to pull off the upset win as a small underdog to advance.

NBA betting trends

Toronto is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

The total has gone under in eight of Toronto's last 10 games on the road.

Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.