Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The third-seeded Houston Rockets hope to eliminate the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series Tuesday as solid home favorites. The Rockets are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread through the first four games of the first-round series.

Point spread: The Rockets opened as eight-point favorites; the total is at 223, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 116.7-107.7, Rockets (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Thunder can cover the spread

The Thunder held Houston’s James Harden to just 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting in Sunday’s 113-109 loss in Game 4, but it later came out that he suffered an ankle injury in Game 3 that impacted that performance.

Harden missed all seven of his three-point attempts, and the Rockets were able to win thanks to a perfect 12-of-12 effort from the field by Nene Hilario, who ended up with 28 points in 25 minutes off the bench. The chances of Nene duplicating that are slim to none, giving Oklahoma City a chance.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

The fact that Nene stepped up when the backcourt of Harden and Patrick Beverley (2-of-13 shooting for six points) struggled mightily backed up once again that the Rockets have more depth and more offensive weapons.

Houston does not depend solely on Harden the way that the Thunder count on likely NBA MVP Russell Westbrook, with the bench outscoring Oklahoma City’s by a 64-22 margin in Game 4 (Eric Gordon and Lou Williams also scored 18 points apiece). That kind of consistent production combined with home-court advantage should lead to another easy victory here.

Smart betting pick

The Rockets should be concerned about Harden’s injury, but they should also worry about closing out the Thunder as quickly as possible. The more Harden can rest before the second round begins, the better their chances will be of advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three years.

Houston is 11-2-1 ATS at sports betting sites in the past 14 meetings overall and will rely again on a balanced effort to oust Oklahoma City. With the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies possibly going the distance in their first-round series, clinching in Game 5 is what the Rockets need to do.

NBA betting trends

Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games on the road.

The total has gone under in four of Houston's last six games at home.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.