Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds, Analysis and NBA Betting Pick

The second-seeded San Antonio Spurs will try to hold serve in Game 5 of their first-round series against the seventh-seeded Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday as double-digit favorites. The home team has won and covered the spread in each of the first four games of the best-of-seven series.

Point spread: The Spurs opened as nine-point favorites; the total is at 186.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 102.5-93.7, Spurs (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Grizzlies can cover the spread

Memphis certainly has some momentum here after winning the last two games, with both of them coming as a home underdog. The Grizzlies were able to overcome a series-best 43 points from San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard, keeping him from making more than half his shots from the field and taking the final shot.

Instead, it was Marc Gasol who hit the game-winner with less than one second remaining in overtime to help earn them a 110-108 victory last Saturday. Their bench also outscored the reserves for the Spurs 27-17 in Game 4, led by JaMychal Green's 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting.

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

The first two games of this series at San Antonio were not close, with the home team winning by an average of 21.5 points. Yes, home-court advantage really does matter when these two teams match up, as the Spurs have won nine in a row against Memphis at the AT&T Center to go along with a 6-3 mark against the spread, including the playoffs.

Leonard has performed especially well there in the first two games, too, making 20-of-28 shots from the field (71.4 percent) overall in averaging 34.5 points.

Smart betting pick

San Antonio could have won Game 4, but Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley's 35 points were simply too much to overcome. Similar to Leonard, Conley has shot better at home, making just 13-of-32 attempts (40.6 percent) in the first two games combined on the road while averaging 18.5 points.

Tony Parker outplayed Conley at home for the Spurs, and bettors can expect him to perform better now that the games are more important. With Leonard and Parker leading the way, look for San Antonio to keep the home team trends alive by winning and covering the spread at online sports betting sites again in Game 5.

NBA betting trends

Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last six games.

Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road.

The total has gone under in four of San Antonio's last five games at home.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.