Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers Odds, Analysis, NBA Playoff Betting Pick

The Cleveland Cavaliers hope to win their sixth straight meeting with the Indiana Pacers overall Thursday and take a 3-0 lead in their first-round playoff series as small road chalk.

But while the Cavs have won nine of the past 11 meetings with the Pacers, they have struggled to a 2-11 mark against the spread in the previous 13, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.

Point spread: The Cavaliers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total is at 211.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 113.7-101.9, Pacers (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread

Yes, Cleveland is 0-2 ATS in the first two games of this series. But the Cavs are also 2-0 straight up, obviously, and they will have a much smaller spread to cover in this spot. They were covering each of the first two games before the fourth quarter, when Indiana rallied both times.

The key will be playing much better in the final 12 minutes, knowing that a huge victory here in Game 3 could give Cleveland a massive mental edge over the Pacers in the series with no team ever rallying back from that kind of a deficit to win.

Why the Pacers can cover the spread

Indiana will lean on its home-court advantage in the next two games in an effort to try to even the series, and recent history there is on its side. The Pacers not only have an outstanding spread mark in the past 13 meetings overall, but they also have won 12 of the last 14 games played between the teams at Bankers Life Fieldhouse SU.

One of the two losses during that stretch saw them blow a 15-point lead, too, with Kyle Korver scoring 29 points in 26 minutes off the bench for the Cavs. Korver has scored four points combined in the last two games, so needless to say, he has not been a factor.

Smart betting pick

Cleveland was not a good road team during the regular season, finishing with a losing record at 20-21 SU and 17-24 ATS. Meanwhile, Indiana was one of the best home teams in the Eastern Conference at 29-12 SU to go along with a 23-18 ATS mark. That will be the difference in Game 3, as the Pacers pull off the upset as home underdogs at online betting sites.

NBA betting trends

Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.