Oregon Ducks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (31-7) will try to win their ninth straight game against a Pac-12 opponent and make their second consecutive appearance in the national championship game when they meet the third-seeded Oregon Ducks (33-5) as solid favorites in the second Final Four matchup at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Five-time champion North Carolina finished as the NCAA runner-up a year ago while Oregon is returning to the Final Four for the first time since winning its lone national title back in 1939.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total is at 148, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 78.1-70.2 Tar Heels (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Oregon can cover the spread

The Ducks do not care how long it has been since they played in a Final Four or who they are playing. They throttled the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks in a 74-60 rout as 6.5-point underdogs at sports betting sites in the East Regional Final last Saturday after edging the seventh-seeded Michigan Wolverines 69-68 in a pick'em Sweet 16 matchup.

Oregon has not faced the Heels since 2008 in a 98-69 loss but is 11-0 SU in its last 11 after dropping the previous game in a series. Defensively, the Ducks have proved over and over again that they can frustrate and beat great offensive teams playing in a loaded Pac-12 that has fared well overall in the Big Dance. And defense wins games like this.

Why North Carolina can cover the spread

The experience of the Tar Heels is second to none here because the Ducks have not been in this spot in nearly 80 years, and the other two schools in the other semifinal have never played in a Final Four before. They are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight versus the Pac-12, and will be making their 20th Final Four appearance overall.

North Carolina has also won 10 of 12 SU against teams with winning records, and the bitter taste of defeat on a last-second shot by the Villanova Wildcats in last season's championship game will continue to serve as motivation for the returning players.

Smart betting pick

North Carolina advanced from arguably the toughest region in the South, ousting an extremely talented Kentucky Wildcats squad in the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, Oregon played in the second-most difficult region, and upsetting Kansas will give head coach Dana Altman's players a ton of confidence.

While the Heels have been there and done that, the Ducks will have too much energy for them to handle and take advantage of an ankle injury for North Carolina point guard Joel Berry II to move on to Monday's national title game. Bet on Altman to outcoach Roy Williams and pull off another upset.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in three of North Carolina's last four games on a Saturday.

North Carolina is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against the Pac-12.

The total has gone over in eight of Oregon's last 11 games.

Oregon is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on a Saturday.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.