Wisconsin Badgers vs. Florida Gators: Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick

The fourth-seeded Florida Gators (26-8) are suddenly the favorites to win an upset-ridden East Region missing the top two seeds, but first, they are listed as small chalk to top the eighth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers (27-9) in their Sweet 16 matchup at Madison Square Garden on Friday.

The Badgers took out the top-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the second round, upsetting the defending national champs 65-62 as 5.5-point underdogs last Saturday.

Point spread: The Gators opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 131.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 65.4-65.0 Gators (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Wisconsin can cover the spread

Wisconsin has the experience of going deep in the Big Dance, led by seniors Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes. Both of them played in the national championship game two years ago and were vital in helping upset the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four with 12 points apiece.

The Badgers are also 5-1 straight up and against the spread at online gambling sites in their last six games, with the lone loss during that stretch coming vs. the Michigan Wolverines as two-point favorites in the Big Ten tournament title game nearly two weeks ago.

Why Florida can cover the spread

The Gators are benefitting from the absence of the Wildcats in this spot, and now they must guard against looking past a dangerous Wisconsin squad. Florida is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since Billy Donovan's team advanced to the Final Four in 2014, and successor Mike White has done an outstanding job this season.

The Gators have not played the Badgers since Donovan coached them in 2012 and 2013, splitting a pair of meetings. Florida was the better team this season, hence the seeding.

Smart betting pick

It's hard not to like Wisconsin here considering the team's style of play and recent success in games like this. Head coach Greg Gard has done a great job with these Badgers in his first full year at the helm replacing Bo Ryan, and his experience over the years will be the difference opposite counterpart White.

Wisconsin has won nine of its last 12 games against SEC opponents and will make it 10 of 13 with another upset.

March Madness betting trends

Florida is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 1.5 points or less.

The total has gone over in eight of Florida's last 10 games against the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.