Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Underdogs Xavier Musketeers challenge the Arizona Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament's second West Regional semifinal Thursday night in San Jose, California.

Major-conference power Arizona is 8-3 straight up but only 3-8 against the spread over its previous 11 NCAA tournament games. Mid-major Xavier, meanwhile, is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 tournament games. 

Point spread: The Wildcats opened as eight-point favorites; the total is at 144, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.4-71.4 Wildcats (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Xavier can cover the spread

Coach Chris Mack's troops began this tournament with a 76-65 win over Maryland last Thursday then roasted Florida State on Saturday 91-66. The Musketeers are back playing on the second weekend of the Big Dance for the second time in the last three seasons.

Xavier took a 10-point lead into halftime against the Seminoles and pulled away in the second half for a surprisingly easy victory.

On the evening, the Musketeers shot a hot 56 percent from the floor, made 11 of 17 from three-point territory and 20 of 26 free throws, all while holding FSU to just 40 percent FG shooting. Xavier is now 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS over its last six games.

Why Arizona can cover the spread

Coach Sean Miller's Wildcats opened this NCAA tournament with a 100-82 victory over North Dakota last Thursday then staved off Saint Mary's on Saturday 69-60. Arizona is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

The Wildcats trailed the Gaels by a bucket early in the second half, then used an 11-2 run to take the lead for good and eventually covered as five-point favorites. On the night, Arizona shot 45 percent from the field, but 59 percent in the second half. It also made 19 of 23 free throws, which certainly helped cover that spread.

On the season, the Wildcats are shooting 76 percent from the line. Arizona is now 11-1 SU and 7-4-1 ATS over its last 11 games.

Smart betting pick

The Wildcats are 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS versus teams that made the NCAA tournament this season, while the Musketeers are only 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS against that same field. Also, it's doubtful Xavier will shoot the ball as well as it did last time out, and Arizona can cover spreads late with its free-throw shooting. The smart money here for those that gamble online is to back the Wildcats.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in four of Arizona's last five games.

Arizona is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games.

Xavier is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven games against the Pacific-12.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.