South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Baylor Bears Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

The first Sweet 16 matchup in the East Region will feature at least one team that was not supposed to make it this far, when the seventh-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks (24-10) face the third-seeded Baylor Bears (27-7) as small underdogs.

The Gamecocks upset the second-seeded Duke Blue Devils 88-81 as 6.5-point underdogs last Sunday while the Bears are just 7-6 since February 1.

Point spread: The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total is at 137, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 71.0-69.6 Gamecocks (College basketball picks on every game)

Why South Carolina can cover the spread

South Carolina has trailed each of its first two games in the Big Dance at halftime but saved its best basketball for the final 20 minutes on both occasions. Whatever head coach Frank Martin is telling his Gamecocks at the break is working, but he would be the first to say that digging an early hole is not advisable.

Led by SEC Player of the Year Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina—which has a 0.5 percent chance to win the NCAA tournament, according to PredictionMachine.com—continues to be underrated, and another great performance like he had in the first two rounds will make this team tough to beat again.

Why Baylor can cover the spread

Many probably did not expect to see Baylor at Madison Square Garden in New York City considering how poorly the team played at times following an impressive 20-1 start. But the Bears still earned a top-three seed in the NCAA tournament and have to be happy that they will not be squaring off against the Blue Devils instead.

Baylor's opponent here is offensively challenged yet still erupted for 65 points in the second half versus Duke, which should serve as a wake-up call and keep the Bears from looking ahead.

Smart betting pick

The Gamecocks have lost the past three meetings with Baylor, and they are also just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 versus teams with winning records. Combine that with the fact that the Bears have gone 9-1 straight up in their previous 10 against SEC opponents, and the betting trends seemingly favor the favorites on the Vegas lines.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

South Carolina has played poorly in the first half of each of the first two games, and that will finally catch up to Martin's team in this spot.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in Baylor's last four games.

Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after consecutive wins.

South Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.