Butler Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds and March Madness Betting Pick

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (29-7) will try to move one step closer to a return to the Final Four on Friday when they take on the fourth-seeded Butler Bulldogs (25-8) as solid favorites at the FedExForum in Memphis.

The Tar Heels got a scare in the second round, rallying to beat the Arkansas Razorbacks 72-65 after trailing 65-60 with less than three minutes left but failing to cover the spread as 11.5-point favorites.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as seven-point favorites; the total is at 152.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 71.0-69.8 Tar Heels (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Butler can cover the spread

The Bulldogs are a dangerous opponent for any team, but especially when playing an opponent that is not familiar with them. They have upset the Tar Heels twice within the past five seasons, both times as underdogs of nine points or more.

In fact, Butler is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a 'dog overall, including a pair of straight up wins over the defending national champion Villanova Wildcats. The Bulldogs are also 18-7 SU in their last 25 when winning the previous game in a matchup and have been known to be giant-killers in the Big Dance.

Why North Carolina can cover the spread

The bigger issue for North Carolina in its comeback victory against Arkansas is that the team blew a 17-point lead in the first half. The Tar Heels, who have a 15.2 percent chance to win the NCAA tournament, according to PredictionMachine.com, were up 30-13 with 5:32 remaining before the intermission but saw their lead cut to five by halftime.

Regardless, they still managed to pull off the win, and that was their first loss against the spread in their last seven games when closing as favorites of seven points or more, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database. North Carolina will not take Butler lightly.

Smart betting pick

Butler is a smart team and will not be intimidated by North Carolina unlike many others. The Bulldogs advanced to back-to-back national championship games in 2010 and 2011, and this their first appearance in the Sweet 16 since then.

Butler head coach Chris Holtmann can out-coach his counterpart in Roy Williams, who has not fared well in the NCAA tournament when his Tar Heels cannot run up and down the floor. Look for the Bulldogs to slow down the tempo and keep this game close enough to cover on the Vegas odds.

March Madness betting trends

North Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of seven points or more.

Butler is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.

The total has gone under in Butler's last four games.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.