Arkansas Razorbacks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, March Madness Pick

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) will try to follow up a dominant effort in the first round with another in the second when they face the eighth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks (26-9) as double-digit favorites for Sunday's South Regional matchup in Greenville, South Carolina.

The Tar Heels cruised to a 103-64 rout of the 16th-seeded Texas Southern Tigers on Friday, covering the spread easily as 26.5-point chalk.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as eight-point favorites; the total is at 160.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 76.2-69.3 Tar Heels (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Arkansas can cover the spread

Arkansas took advantage of a late flagrant foul to oust the ninth-seeded Seton Hall Pirates on Friday with a 7-0 run in the final minute after trailing by one. The Razorbacks have won four of their last five along with nine of 11, and they are also 5-2 straight up and against the spread the last seven times they have lost the previous game in a matchup.

Arkansas topped Seton Hall despite being out-rebounded, forcing 15 turnovers while totaling 12 steals and seven blocks. A similar defensive effort can keep this game within single digits.

Why North Carolina can cover the spread

North Carolina is an amazing 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games during the month of March. The lone SU loss during that stretch came versus the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC tournament semifinals March 10.

The Tar Heels—second on the odds to win the NCAA tournament heading into the event, per Gaming the Odds—won six of seven prior to that setback, going 5-1-1 ATS. They simply have too much experience for the Razorbacks in this spot and will be able to overwhelm their opponent to get back to the Sweet 16.

Smart betting pick

These teams have met twice over the past decade in the NCAA tournament, with North Carolina winning both by an average of 20 points and covering each time.

Bettors should not be surprised to see a similar result here, as the Tar Heels are too talented to let the Razorbacks hang around. They will blitz Arkansas offensively and should be up by double digits at halftime. From there, look for North Carolina to roll to another cover.

March Madness betting trends

North Carolina is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games in March.

The total has gone under in five of North Carolina's last six games after a win.

The total has gone over in eight of Arkansas' last 11 games against the ACC.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.