MMA Fans Who Think Conor Has a Shot vs. Floyd Need an Economics Lesson

The enthusiasm surrounding the highest-profile crossover fight in modern combat sports history is officially nearing fever pitch.

With a boisterous public appearance at a Michael Conlan fight this past weekend in New York, Conor McGregor has announced his presence in the boxing world. He has announced his intention to take it over entirely, in fact.

People have responded. The headlines in both media realms are now squarely focused on McGregor, his claims and how he and targeted opponent Floyd Mayweather Jr. will move forward. Initially, it appeared that the push was for a June bout; however, more recently it’s looking like September is on the radar, as McGregor told Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times (h/t Bloody Elbow).

The boxing match will provide Mayweather a chance to move to 50-0 in his career, while also serving as McGregor’s first professional boxing appearance.

Many fans, particularly those in the MMA space, seem to be glossing over that experiential discrepancy, though, rolling themselves up in the soft blanket of McGregor’s salesmanship and declaring that he has a chance.

Not only that he has a chance, actually. That he will beat Mayweather.

Those fans, above all else, are in serious need of an economics lesson (Note: the video below contains some NSFW language).

Let’s make one thing clear as we barrel towards Mayweather/McGregor: McGregor’s chance at victory is microscopic. He is not a boxer. He is a mixed martial artist—a great one—who is about to compete in a different context for the first time in his life.

Within that context, he will fight one of the greatest athletes to ever ply his trade between the ropes. Not a fellow neophyte, not even another mixed martial artist testing his skills in another realm. Not a journeyman or some other variety of bum opponent tailored to make him look good.

One of the best of all time.

A man with a legitimate claim to being the best to ever compete in one of history’s most storied athletic pursuits. Including his amateur career he’s been boxing as long as McGregor’s sport has existed in North American consciousness.

And so, this bout becomes one purely about economics. Nothing more; nothing less.

For McGregor, a bout with Mayweather represents an opportunity to make a larger purse than he’ll ever see in MMA, while enjoying spinoff benefits from the exposure he’ll get. As dangerous as the crossover is for him generally, Mayweather is a relatively safe opponent given his profile and somewhat unthreatening style in the ring. There’s a reasonable chance that McGregor can go the distance with him, boosting his own profile and taking limited damage in the process.

In that sense, a loss would be a win—an 0-0 MMA fighter survives 10 or 12 rounds against the best fighter of his generation. Maybe he even lands a few shots or steals a couple of rounds from Mayweather. The script for how McGregor spins the loss on his way back to the UFC basically writes itself, and he’s richer and more well-known than ever as he’s reading it to the world.

The trickle-down effect allows him to improve both the volume and value of his endorsements and increase his negotiating leverage against the UFC. He’s already their biggest star, and by then he’d be their richest and probably their most famous in the sporting mainstream.

So, as Mayweather and McGregor draft the final contracts, agree on a date and start to ramp up the promotional undertakings, remember that this is solely about economics. It is for Mayweather, who will cash out at 50-0 with at least another $100 million in the bank, but it is even more so for McGregor.

This is not about matching skills with one of the best boxers of all time, it's about being willing to take a largely irrelevant loss to become impossibly wealthy. There is no contest in skills here, and that will flesh itself out in the fight itself.

Still, we’ll all enjoy the ride to get there, and we’ll all watch when it goes down. 

And that’s kind of the point.

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