Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick

The Florida Gators are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine meetings with teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Virginia Cavaliers, meanwhile, are just 2-6 ATS their last eight times out against teams with winning records.

In what could be a grinder, the Gators battle the Cavaliers in an East Region second-round bout Saturday night in Orlando.

Point spread: The Gators opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 127, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 66.0-63.7 Cavaliers (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Virginia can cover the spread

The Cavs reached this second round by beating UNC-Wilmington on Thursday 76-71. Virginia fell down by 15 points midway through the first half, but used a 19-3 run to take a one-point lead by halftime. UVA pushed its advantage to nine points in the second half, let the Seahawks get within two late, but hung on for the victory.

For Virginia, the 76 points was the most it's scored in regulation time in its last 17 games.

On the day the Cavs shot 50 percent from the field and made seven of 17 shots from three-point land, while holding Wilmington to 41 percent field-goal shooting.

So since losing four games in a row back in February, the Cavaliers are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last six games, including that 53-43 victory over North Carolina.

Why Florida can cover the spread

The Gators advanced to Saturday's action by holding off East Tennessee State on Thursday 80-65. Florida actually trailed the Buccaneers by a bucket early in the second half, but a 12-2 run gave it a lead it would never relinquish. And in going six-for-six on free throws over the last minute, the Gators secured the cover as 10-point favorites.

On the afternoon, Florida shot 48 percent from the floor, while limiting ETSU to 40 percent shooting.

Prior to Thursday's victory, the Gators had lost three of their previous four games. But those losses came against two pretty good teams in Kentucky and Vanderbilt. And prior to that slide, Florida had won nine games in a row.

Smart betting pick

As the spread on this game indicates, this should be a close one. Ultimately, an illness that could keep Virginia's leading rebounder, forward Isaiah Wilkins, out of this game could make the difference. It's a tight call, but the smart money here plays the Gators.

March Madness betting trends

Florida is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 1.5 points or less.

Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against the Atlantic Coast.

The total has gone UNDER in Virginia's last nine games as an underdog.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.