Wisconsin Badgers vs. Villanova Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

The Villanova Wildcats are 10-0 in their last 10 games against the Big Ten. The defending champs hope to extend that run and take another step closer to a championship repeat when they meet the Wisconsin Badgers in an NCAA tournament second-round bout Saturday afternoon in Buffalo.

Point spread: The Wildcats opened as five-point favorites; the total is at 128.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.6-56.7 Wildcats (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Wisconsin can cover the spread

Wisconsin advanced to Saturday's play with one of its best performances of this season, an 84-74 victory over Virginia Tech on Thursday. The Badgers took a lead midway through the first half and never trailed from there, responding each time the Hokies pulled close.

Guard Bronson Koenig hit eight three-pointers, several in clutch situations, and forward Nigel Hayes hit eight of nine free throws, converting a couple of key conventional three-point plays.

The 84 points was the most for Wisconsin in its last 18 games, and in pulling away late they covered at minus-6. The Badgers struggled through a 1-5 stretch through February, but are 4-1 both straight up and ATS since.

Why Villanova can cover the spread

Villanova advanced to this second round with a 76-56 victory over Mount St. Mary's on Thursday. The Wildcats started slowly, taking six minutes before they scored their first bucket of the game. And they didn't take their first lead until just a minute remained in the first half. Villanova then pulled away in the second half, although they came up short against the spread at minus-25.

For the game the Wildcats shot 52 percent from the floor, and held the Mountaineers to just 37 percent shooting. It's probably safe to assume Villanova won't need six minutes to score its first basket Saturday.

The Wildcats have now won six in a row overall, and seven NCAA tournament games in a row.

Smart betting pick

Villanova just played a poor half-game and still won by 20 points. On the other side of this matchup Wisconsin is coming off one of its best games of this season. But the Wildcats won't start cold in this one, and the Badgers will be hard-pressed to match their performance of Thursday night. The smart money here sides with Villanova.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in 15 of Villanova's last 20 games against teams with winning records.

The total has gone under in five of Wisconsin's last seven games against the Big East.

Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after an ATS win.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.