Kent State Golden Flashes vs. UCLA Bruins: Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Other NCAA tournament seeding matchups get more ink, but something is going on with the No. 3 vs. No. 14 games. Over the last three years, No. 3 seeds are only 8-4 straight up against No. 14 seeds and a dismal 4-8 against the spread. The UCLA Bruins begin this Big Dance as a No. 3 seed Friday night against No. 14 seed Kent State in Sacramento, California.

Point spread: The Bruins opened as 17-point favorites; the total is at 159, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 76.2-74.2 Bruins (College basketball picks on every game).

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Why Kent State can cover the spread

Kent State won five of its last six games to finish 10-8 in MAC play. The Flashes then won four games in six days, three of them as underdogs on the betting odds, to snag the conference tournament championship, upsetting rival Akron in the title game last Saturday 70-65.

So Kent State is back in the Dance for the first time since 2008.

The Flashes shot 53 percent from the field in that victory over the Zips, who were the best team in the MAC during the regular season. On the year, Kent State is only shooting 43 percent from the floor but averaging 77 points per game, with three players averaging at least 13.

Why UCLA can cover the spread

The Bruins closed this season with a 9-0 run to finish 15-3 and in third place in the Pac-12. UCLA then opened the conference tournament by sliding by Southern California but ran into a tough draw in the semifinals and lost to Arizona 86-75 last Friday.

So after missing the NCAA tournament last year, the Bruins are in the Big Dance once again and perhaps feeling a bit dissed with their seeding.

UCLA leads all of D-1 this season in field-goal shooting at 52 percent and in scoring at 90 points per game, with six players averaging in double figures. The Bruins are also holding opponents to just 42 percent field-goal shooting, and they've outrebounded eight of their last 10 foes.

Smart betting pick

UCLA has all the talent, plus the pedigree, plus the motivation. But Kent State comes in hot, with nine wins in its last 10 games. Also, the spread on this game is the largest, by several points, among all the No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchups in this tournament. The Bruins are likely to win this game outright, but the smart money rides the Flashes, plus those points.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in five of UCLA's last six games.

UCLA is 23-6 SU in its last 29 games after losing as a favorite.

Kent State is 5-0 SU in its last five games after winning as an underdog.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.