Michigan State Spartans vs. Miami Hurricanes Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

The Michigan State Spartans are 7-9 straight up and 8-8 against the spread this season versus teams that made the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes are only 4-10 both SU and ATS against Big Dance qualifiers this year.

In a college basketball game football fans might like, Michigan State meets Miami on Friday night in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Point spread: The Hurricanes opened as two-point favorites; the total is at 125, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 68.2-59.8 Spartans (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why Michigan State can cover the spread

Michigan State used a late 6-2 run, which included victories over Michigan and Wisconsin, to finish 10-8 in Big Ten play. The Spartans then split two games in the conference tournament, whipping Penn State before losing a tough one to Minnesota last Friday 63-58.

So, Michigan State is at the Big Dance for the 20th year in a row, which is the third-longest active tournament streak in the country.

For the season the Spartans are shooting 47 percent from the field and 38 percent from three-point range, while holding opponents to just under 40 percent field-goal shooting. They've also outrebounded their last 10 foes in a row.

Why Miami can cover the spread

Miami used a late 6-1 run, which included wins over Virginia Tech, Virginia and Duke, to finish 10-8 in ACC play this season. The Hurricanes then split two games in the ACC tournament, sliding by Syracuse before falling to North Carolina last Thursday 78-53.

So, Miami is playing in the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row, and the third time in six seasons under head coach Jim Larranaga.

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

The Hurricanes can struggle offensively; they haven't scored more than 62 points in any of their previous six games. On the season, though, they're holding opponents to just 41 percent field-goal shooting and just under 64 points per game.

Smart betting pick

Both these teams can run a bit skittish, but Michigan State shoots the ball a little better than Miami and does a slightly better job on the boards. Also, we're all familiar with head coach Tom Izzo's ability to whip his team into shape as the season progresses and his NCAA tournament track record.

And finally, after getting shocked in the first round of last year's tournament, Michigan State should be hungry. The smart money here sides with the Spartans.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in Miami's last six games against teams with winning records.

Miami is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite.

The total has gone over in 10 of Michigan State's last 12 games as an underdog.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.