Texas Sou. Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament are a perfect 128-0 straight up all-time against No. 16 seeds. However, over the last five editions of the Big Dance, those 16s have been holding their own on the money in those matchups, going 11-9 against the spread. No. 16 Texas Southern plays as a David against No. 1 North Carolina's Goliath on Friday afternoon in Greenville, South Carolina.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 25-point favorites; the total is at 153, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why Texas Southern can cover the spread

The Tigers ride a nine-game winning streak into Friday. They won their last six games in the regular season to finish 16-2 and atop the Southwestern Athletic Conference standings and won three games in five days to take the conference tournament, beating Alcorn State last Saturday 53-50 in the title bout.

Texas Southern is at the Big Dance for the third time in the last four seasons.

Statistically the Tigers don't impress, as they're only shooting 43 percent from the floor while allowing opponents to shoot 44 percent. But offensively they've hit the 80-point mark five times over their last eight games, while defensively they've held five of their last nine opponents to 64 points or less.

Finally two seasons ago, Texas Southern, as a No. 15 seed, played Arizona, a No. 2 seed, in the first round of the NCAA tournament, losing 93-72 but covering as 23-point underdogs.

Why North Carolina can cover the spread

UNC won five of its last six games, beating Duke in the season finale, to finish 14-4 in ACC play and claim another regular-season conference championship. The Tar Heels disposed of Miami to open the ACC tournament, but lost to the Blue Devils in the semifinals last Friday 93-83.

Nonetheless, the Heels received a No. 1 seed for this NCAA tournament, one year after losing in the national championship game to Villanova.

This season North Carolina is shooting 47 percent from the field while limiting opponents to under 42 percent shooting. The Heels also lead the nation in rebounding at plus-13 per game.

Smart betting pick

Texas Southern went 0-4 against teams that made the NCAA tournament this season, losing to Arizona, Louisville, Cincinnati and Baylor by an average of 29 points. Meanwhile, North Carolina, the second favorite on the NCAA tournament odds at some sportsbooks heading into the event, is a monster. The smart money here takes the Tar Heels.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in five of North Carolina's last seven games.

North Carolina is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games in March.

Texas Southern is 0-3 ATS in its last three games.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.