UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. Virginia Cavaliers Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Since 2001, a No. 12 seed has upset a No. 5 seed in every NCAA tournament except one. In fact, over the last eight tournaments, No. 12s are an amazing 17-15 straight up and 21-10-1 against the spread versus No. 5s. The Virginia Cavaliers hope to avoid adding to that negative trend when they meet the Seahawks of UNC-Wilmington on Thursday afternoon in Orlando, Florida. 

Point spread: The Cavaliers opened as eight-point favorites; the total is at 131, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why UNC-Wilmington can cover the spread

The Seahawks won their final four games to finish 15-3 and in first place in the Colonial Athletic Association. They won three games in three days to take the conference tournament title, including the College of Charleston for the title two Mondays ago, 78-69.

UNC-Wilmington is playing in the NCAA tournament for the second straight season. Last year the Seahawks lost to Duke in the first round, 93-85, but covered as 10-point dogs.

The Seahawks shot 53 percent from the field in the CAA final over the Cougars 10 days ago and made 10 of 25 shots from three-point land. On the season UNC-Wilmington is shooting 48 percent from the floor while averaging 85 points per game. They've also hit the 100-point mark seven times.

Why Virginia can cover the spread

UVA won its last three games to finish 11-7 in ACC play. The Cavs split two games in the ACC tournament, beating Pittsburgh 75-63 before falling to Notre Dame last Thursday 71-58.

So with its at-large bid, Virginia is playing in the NCAA tournament for the fourth season in a row.

On the season the Cavs are shooting 46 percent from the field and 39 percent from three-point land. But it's on the other end of the court where Virginia does its best work, holding opponents to just under 40 percent field-goal shooting while allowing just 56 points per game, the fewest in all of Division I ball.

Smart betting pick

This matchup is a contrast in styles. Virginia likes to slow it down, grind it out and play tough defense, while UNC-Wilmington likes to push the ball and create space for its smallish shooters. The better defensive teams usually win these matchups, but in this spot, the smart money is on the Seahawks with the points.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in six of Virginia's last eight games.

UNC-Wilmington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.

The total has gone over in UNC-Wilmington's last 11 games in March.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.