Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Northwestern Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Northwestern finally made the NCAA tournament, but Vanderbilt is the hotter team heading into its first-round matchup Thursday afternoon in Salt Lake City, going 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread its last nine times out. Can the Wildcats find success in their Big Dance debut? Or will the Commodores sail on?

Point spread: The Commodores opened as four-point favorites; the total is at 131, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 67.3-63.4 Commodores (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why Vanderbilt can cover the spread

In its first season under new head coach Bryce Drew, who knows a little something about winning first-round games in the NCAA tournament, Vandy won five of its last six games to finish 10-8 in SEC play. The Commodores then beat Texas A&M and upset Florida in overtime in that conference tournament, before falling to Arkansas in the semifinals last Saturday 76-62.

So following a three-year drought Vanderbilt is back in the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.

The Commodores are shooting 38 percent from three-point land this season and 78 percent from the stripe, which is super for a college team. And defensively Vandy is holding opponents to just 42 percent field-goal shooting.

For the season the Commodores are 6-10 SU but 9-7 ATS against teams that made the Big Dance.

Why Northwestern can cover the spread

In its fourth season under head coach Chris Collins, Northwestern finished 10-8 in Big Ten play, its first winning conference record since 1968. The Wildcats then opened the conference tournament with victories over Rutgers and Maryland, before laying an egg in a 76-48 loss to Wisconsin last Saturday.

But with that winning Big Ten record came the first-ever invitation to the Big Dance.

The Wildcats can struggle to shoot the ball at times, but they are hitting at 75 percent from the free-throw line. And at the other end of the court, they're holding opponents to just 40 percent shooting from the floor.

Northwestern is also 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS against teams that made the NCAA tournament this season, and two of those losses came while second-leading scorer Scottie Lindsey (14 points per game) was out with an illness. He put up 16, 17 and 16 points in those three Big Ten tournament games.

Smart betting pick

Northwestern, a +20000 longshot (bet $100 to win $2000) to win the NCAA tournament, has sentimentality on its side, but Vanderbilt has been the better team as of late. The smart money here kicks sentiment to the side and bets on the Commodores.

March Madness betting trends

Northwestern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in March.

The total has gone over in Northwestern's last three games.

Vanderbilt is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.