ND Fighting Hawks vs. Arizona Wildcats Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

A No. 15 seed shocked a No. 2 seed in last year's NCAA tournament, the fourth time that's happened in the last five seasons. And over the last two tournaments No. 15 seeds are 6-2 against the spread in the first round. No. 2 Arizona hopes to avoid any complications when it meets No. 15 North Dakota on Thursday night in Salt Lake City. 

Point spread: The Wildcats opened as 16.5-point favorites; the total is at 145, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why North Dakota can cover the spread

UND won seven of its last eight games to finish 14-4 and atop the Big Sky Conference standings. The Hawks won three games in three days to take the conference tournament title, knocking off Weber State in the championship game last Saturday, 93-89 in overtime. North Dakota, which trailed the Wildcats by 11 points in the second half, is in the Big Dance for the first time ever.

On the season North Dakota is shooting 49 percent from the floor, 39 percent from three-point land and 72 percent from the free-throw line while averaging 81 points per game. It's also hit the 90-point mark twice in the last three games and 10 times on the season.

Why Arizona can cover the spread

Arizona won six of its last seven games to claim a share of the Pac-12's regular-season championship. The Wildcats won three games in three days to claim the conference tournament title, knocking off UCLA in the semifinals, then outlasting Oregon in the championship game last Saturday, 83-80.

Arizona is making its fifth straight NCAA tournament appearance and is among the betting favorites at +800 (wager $100 to win $800).

The Wildcats opened that Pac-12 tournament by shooting 56 percent from the field in a win over Colorado, then shot 50 percent in the victory over the Bruins and 58 percent in the win over the Ducks.

On the season Arizona is shooting 48 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point range and 76 percent from the free-throw line, all while holding foes to just 42 percent field-goal shooting.

Smart betting pick

Arizona obviously outclasses the Hawks, but the Wildcats are only 5-6 against the spread this season when favored by between 10 and 20 points. And North Dakota is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year. Arizona should win this game, but the smart betting play is the Hawks plus the points.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in nine of Arizona's last 12 games as a favorite.

North Dakota is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.

The total has gone over in six of North Dakota's last eight games after consecutive ATS wins.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.