SD State Jackrabbits vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Gonzaga didn't just snare a No. 1 seed for this NCAA tournament, it proved to be a great bet, going 20-5-1 against the spread over its last 26 games. We'll begin to find out if the Bulldogs deserve that seeding when they open this Big Dance against South Dakota State on Thursday afternoon in Salt Lake City.

Point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 18-point favorites; the total is at 153, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 76.8-67.7 Bulldogs (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why South Dakota State can cover the spread

The Jackrabbits won six of their last eight games to finish 8-8 in Summit League play, then won three games in three days to take the Summit League tournament title. South Dakota State rallied from a double-digit halftime deficit to beat top-seeded South Dakota in the semifinals of that conference tournament, then nipped Nebraska Omaha 79-77 in the championship game last Tuesday.

So these Jackrabbits are at the Big Dance for the fourth time in the last six years, and not many programs can say that. Led by forward Mike Daum, who ranks second in all of D-1 in scoring at 25 points per game, South Dakota State is shooting 46 percent from the floor this season, and 78 percent from the free-throw line. It's also out-rebounded five of its last six opponents.

Why Gonzaga can cover the spread

The Zags won their first 29 games this season, claiming the WCC championship along the way. They then lost their regular-season finale to BYU, but recovered and won three games in four days to take the WCC tournament title, beating Saint Mary's for the third time this season in the championship game by a score of 74-56.

So Gonzaga is playing in the Big Dance for the 19th consecutive season, which ties them with Wisconsin for the fourth-longest current tournament streak. On the season the Zags rank right near the top in all of D-1 in field-goal shooting at 52 percent, and in field-goal defense, holding opponents to just 37 percent shooting. They've also out-rebounded 13 of their last 14 foes.

Smart betting pick

Gonzaga is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament, and 8-5 ATS when favored by 20 points or more. And that's hard to do. South Dakota State, meanwhile, is a .500 team from the Summit League. The smart money here bets the Bulldogs.

March Madness betting trends

Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games.

The total has gone under in four of Gonzaga's last five games as a favorite.

South Dakota State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.