UC Davis Aggies vs. N.C. Central Eagles Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

It's Eagles vs. Aggies when North Carolina Central, 16-2 over its last 18 games, meets UC Davis, which is 6-1 its last seven times out, in the first of two First Four games on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.

Point spread: The Eagles opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.0-59.1 Eagles (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why UC Davis can cover the spread

UC Davis went 11-5 in the Big West but missed out on the regular-season conference championship when it lost to UC Irvine in the finale. But the Aggies got revenge when they upset the Anteaters in the conference tournament title bout last Saturday, 50-47. UC Davis trailed in that game by five points with four minutes to go, then went on a 9-0 run to steal the victory and secure its first-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

On the season the Aggies are only shooting 44 percent from the floor, but they're holding opponents to just 42 percent shooting. And over their last three games, omitting an overtime period, UC Davis has allowed just 52 points per game.

Also, Aggies head coach Jim Les has tasted NCAA tournament success before, taking his alma mater, Bradley, to the Sweet 16 back in 2006.

Why North Carolina Central can cover the spread

The Eagles went 13-3 in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to claim the regular-season title and won three games in four days to take the conference tournament crown, beating Norfolk in the championship game last Saturday, 67-59. N.C. Central trailed the Spartans by a bucket early in the second half, then used a 17-0 run to take control. So the Eagles are making their second NCAA tournament appearance, both coming in the last four seasons.

For the season NCCU is shooting just under 46 percent from the floor and ranks among the very best in the country by limiting opponents to just 39 percent field-goal shooting.

The Eagles own one victory this season over a team that made the NCAA tournament, an 82-74 decision over Horizon League tournament champion Northern Kentucky back in November. North Carolina Central is also 1-2 straight up and 3-0 against the spread against power-conference teams this season, with an upset win over Missouri and close losses to Ohio State and Louisiana State.

Smart betting pick

North Carolina Central owns advantages on offense, on defense and on the boards. So the smart money here sides with the Eagles.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of North Carolina Central's last 10 games as a favorite.

North Carolina Central is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a favorite of three points or more.

UC Davis is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.